Gold Cup 2014 Depth Model: Update

Following on from here:

Following the King George VI Chase and Lexus Chase:

Gold Cup

Elite
Bobs Worth
Silviniaco Conti

Elite with Exposed Limitations 
Cue Card
Sir Des Champs
First Lieutenant
Long Run

Potentially Elite
Al Ferof

Full race Preview in February. The Depth Model naturally points to the shape of that Preview.

What has changed since the start of the season? Not much. For all the to and fro of opinion and performance, the depth model only moves in accord with events causing significant impact. 

Bobs Worth was clearly not readied, not desired, at Haydock and he duly stamped his class on the Lexus with a dramatic demonstration of his irresistible on/behind bridle ratio and energy distribution. His Haydock run had caused some to think that a certain type of track or ground were necessary but if that were the case he would not be a top class elite horse. For sure he may have optimal preferences - Cheltenham and good ground - but top elite horses have the mentality and class to cope with almost anything. 

Silviniaco Conti delivered his Gold Cup performance to the line at Kempton, improving on his run at Haydock where he was clearly being safeguarded by running wide throughout, tiring physically after challenging the winner in the manner of a horse with a bigger target. He will deservedly get his re-match with Bobs Worth, the clash that never quite made the hill last season. 

Cue Card remains purely elite in the Ryanair Depth Model but here his unsuitable staying on/behind bridle ratio was made visible in the starkest of manners. He has a physicality that makes racing proper once challenged and forced from his extremely high class comfort zone difficult for him, and when required to switch behind the bridle as Silviniaco Conti came to him he had no response. Talk about better ground is a red herring because on any ground it is his on/behind bridle ratio, his physicality, that will determine his type of performance in accord with the class of rival he is facing. 

Long Run remains hugely admirable but time and class of opponent are now too much for him.

First Lieutenant again ran with great credit and was again beaten for the twelfth time in thirteen starts over the last two years.

Sir Des Champs ran with credit after his crashing reappearance fall. He was once again no match for Bobs Worth, however.

Al Ferof faced a difficult race and he was unable to bridge the gap to the two fit and firing opponents ahead of him. He ran with credit and showed just how hard it can be to break through the barrier into elite company in a strong/deep division. That said, he also has around two months of training and physical progression to come, having been broken down physiologically by the demands of this race. The owner most likely favours this race but there is merit in taking time with him via the Ryanair Chase, where he could once again face Cue Card. That said he would be a live outsider in this race for sure. 

There has been no real movement through a porous barrier with a high degree of rigidity from the outset.