Mid-December:
Potentially Elite
Champagne Fever
Grandouet
+
+
Hinterland
[-----------------------]
The Rest
The Henry VIII Chase at Sandown was unusually quite strong. It may have featured the Arkle winner but whether it proves to have done so or not the race revealed a great deal. Hinterland won his second race of the season, again at Sandown, again having mastered Grandouet, again at Sandown. If we deal with the structural depth of the Arkle itself, nothing much has changed. The emergence, so to speak, of Hinterland is more a case of him confirming a level that was expected of him by connections last season, when physical maturity and any unknown elements conspired to hinder his progress. As I have referred to elsewhere, the structure of a division is never fixed or inflexible (unless a super-elite runner is present). The barrier separating the elite or in this case the potentially elite from the swathe of lower cluster runners moves with the contours of the season, the rise and fall of plans, progression, stall, and decline. If we take (theoretically) Hinterland as the premier English-based Arkle contender at this stage it confirms the addition of a third viable candidate to the mix but it leaves unchanged the place of the two that were originally identified. The Championship 2m Novice Chase event is spearheaded by Mullins, Nicholls and Henderson.
Paul Nicholls trained the winner of the Arkle Chase in 1999 (Flagship Uberalles) and 2003 (Azertyuiop). Since then, his training operation has not really targeted the race; on occasion when it has his runners have been a shade or more below the required class. In fact, Hinterland's own progression-stall last season meant that his trainer did not have a runner at all in the race. His record since the brilliant Azertyuiop's win reads: 3F / 5 / 0 / 8F / 39 / 8F / 0 / 5 / 4 / -.
Now Hinterland becomes his main contender. He wasn't right physically in the spring, following lacklustre efforts at Kempton behind Simonsig and, even more worryingly, in a "Jumpers Bumper" at Wolverhampton. The aim this season, according to the trainer, was simply to get him right, back on an even keel and winning novice chases. He has achieved that with aplomb and rightly takes his place among the contenders. There are a number of concerns regarding his Arkle chance however.
Firstly, he was not that high class over hurdles. Obviously he was nowhere near the top rank of hurdlers in a way in which Sizing Europe, Simonsig and to a lesser extent Sprinter Sacre were. A small residual class niggle arises. He was somewhat thrown into the fray over hurdles, quite highly tried, running in the 3yo Triumph Hurdle trial at Cheltenham on his first start which he won. He then lost by 7L to Baby Mix and was beaten in a handicap hurdle. His 4yo Festival was bypassed and he went to the Grade One Matalan Hurdle at Aintree, where he fell. For reasons unknown here, he then began his first novice chase season in a handicap hurdle which he won impressively. It seems safe to assume that lack of physical maturity and growth then hindered his attempts to progress in that division. Such a 'write-off' is highly unusual for a top novice chaser and it could be that his underlying problems from the previous campaign, whatever they were, could resurface.
Secondly, his training programme this season. Paul Nicholls has clearly done an excellent job in nurturing and training his horse; he would have been rightly keen to see him do well and he has achieved that with two impressive wins in good company. The problem arising from this is one of progression, or rather the difficult task of maintaining something that is clearly working so well so early in the season. Nicholls has hinted at giving Hinterland a break over the winter presumably to be brought back with a preparation run for the Arkle (although the word 'fresh' was actually used). This may indicate that his most recent Sandown run is as good as he perhaps can be; there may not be much improvement to come, and now the trainer has the task of bringing him to the same level once again later in the season, when his opponents will themselves only just be coming to their peaks. His momentum will be suspended. Overall therefore, the profiles of the horse and the trainer do not give the feel of a potential Arkle Chase winner. Not yet at least.
What then of Grandouet? Extrapolating from the Sandown race(s) alone it is difficult to see how his chance fares any better than Hinterland's. This is, however, just the latest example from Arkle seasons of why 'form' is irrelevant. Of much greater importance is the overall profile, the trainer and training programme, and physicality. The first thing to note is that Hinterland (this is not a criticism) is probably Paul Nicholls' only viable candidate, which in turn denotes a lack of emerging talent in this sphere in keeping with the previous few years for the trainer. There is Dodging Bullets also, but he looks much more a Jewson type although he could well be of similar ability (early seasonal comparative). When looking at the Henderson stable, a different picture emerges. As with Sizing Europe, Grandouet's attempts to win a Champion Hurdle have been afflicted by physical problems; but that we are talking of a horse thought capable of winning a Champion Hurdle is significant for determining that all-important criteria: residual class. The scenarios are different: Sizing Europe was running all over his (inferior) field when injuring himself after two out; Grandouet was coming to the race on the back of only one run following an absence, travelling powerfully (as he often did over hurdles) but fell four out. This came after the season when he arguably had a better chance to win it, but he missed the race altogether. Again, the precise ins and outs are not particularly relevant, it is enough to know that he was high class, with a (justifiable) high official rating for those that prefer that kind of detail. Were he not thought capable of a serious assault, he could have been kept for another tilt over hurdles with My Tent Or Yours sent chasing.
Grandouet's recent form figures of F6U2 tell a story of physicality that few are keen to look into. When Captain Chris, in his Arkle winning season, racked up four defeats each time finishing second and beaten ten lengths on his first two starts, few would have thought with any zest that he had a Championship race within him, but within him he had just that, and he beat a future Queen Mother Champion Chaser to boot. This is not assessment by proxy; as will be outlined below, sometimes good horses just clash. The best horse usually wins, but on the day the best horse that is most physically mature will nearly always win. A simple trace reveals that Grandouet was on course for a defining Champion Hurdle assault when an infection cost him his trial race and subsequently his place in the big event. He then endured a number of small niggles leading to his first run back being a full year since his previous one. He had taken a lot of training, without being able to race. He then fell in the big event, when arguably overtrained (he was 'grabbing' at his hurdles), before running flat at Aintree (20f) when Geraghty reported that he would not have won at any trip (although he ran well to the 16f point), and then he was turned out for the summer.
Prior to starting his novice chase campaign then, Grandouet had had just three runs since he missed his first Kingwell Hurdle in February 2012 and only one of those was satisfactory (his excellent reappearance run in the International Hurdle). The rest of his time has been spent on the easy list and in and out of proper training. One thing that will have remained constant in this time, as with Hinterland during his difficulties, is physical maturation since his days as a wiry 4yo. Grandouet is quite a stunning looking, athletic animal, not dissimilar to his Triumph Hurdle conqueror, Zarkandar. In his two runs so far it can be seen that Grandouet has developed more of a chaser's physique and the fact that he has appeared twice confirms that, so far, he is part of a full and ongoing training programme. Notably for Henderson, he assigned Grandouet to a course that places high demands on jumping precision and athleticism as well as stamina, with a tiring run to the line after the last fence. He is clearly intent on teaching Grandouet what a 'proper' race is about, without being concerned with winning every race (although that is usually preferable). For his part the horse has responded with some excellent jumping (as has Hinterland) and settled much more professionally on his second start, perhaps the biggest sign yet that his mentality is developing in accord with his physique. He has come up against a slick, honed rival with greater race experience over fences and responded off the bridle to race with determination behind it. With another three months of development ahead Grandouet has time to learn further still that an even distribution of energy is important to him; if allowed a season of uninterrupted training his body will finally get the chance to deliver on the years of promise that footnote his career to date.
Will that be enough to topple Champagne Fever? The horse that is rightly favourite has already mastered the Cheltenham Festival twice and now seeks an unprecedented third gold medal, this time in a division he has worked so productively towards. He was untroubled on his only start so far this season over 20f and he looks set for a route to the Festival that very good horses take. His next race will tell us more, especially if it is the Racing Post Novices Chase over 17f at Leopardstown, after which will come the Irish Arkle or the Opera Hat Chase then Cheltenham. Meaningful runners from Ireland have gone missing in recent Arkle chases but here they have a horse of considerable potential.
Champagne Fever wasn't flawless himself over hurdles. He was beaten by Jezki in the Royal Bond and then no-showed due to an unknown physical problem in the Slaney (his trainer said he "just wasn't right"). He beat Bright New Dawn - an embryo three mile chaser - in the Deloitte and Mullins got him right (in words reminiscent of Nicholls prior to Al Ferof's Supreme win) for the big day, reversing earlier form with Jezki and given a masterclass front-running ride from his jockey. It is clear that he was helped in his task by the fact that, extraordinarily, My Tent Or Yours was pulling his jockey's arms out for over a mile and a half of the race, so that when the battle to the line ensued he could do nothing to haul back Champagne Fever, who in any case fended him off resolutely with an iron mentality. An interesting sidenote is that Henderson will know pretty much exactly where he stands with Grandouet overall: he could have sent My Tent Or Yours after the elusive Grey much as he (including the owners of course) sent Simonsig over fences no doubt in part because of the power they knew Darlan possessed.
It cannot be forgotten - and discussion of Champagne Fever invariable refers to it - that Champagne Fever won his three mile point race easily and that he has "always been seen as a chaser", impressively schooling over them at some stage following his Bumper season. The defeats suffered by Grandouet and the poor first season of Hinterland have, not unreasonably, led to a kind of gap where in general Champagne Fever is seen as the classiest horse, the best jumper of a fence and by far the likeliest winner. There is some merit in that line of thought - and any mishaps to his two main rivals would certainly add substance therein - but such a line doesn't yet have the evidence to support it. Champagne Fever himself has only had one start against very moderate opposition and the impression emerging is one of his powerhouse trainer knowing just how talented his horse is. This is a pleasing sign for sure but for balance it can be noted that in the Supreme he finished just in front of future Champion Hurdle horses and here if Grandouet progresses through to March he will face a chaser who was good enough to be considered a main player in a Champion Hurdle. It would be hard to imagine in that scenario there being a great deal between the two in terms of 'engine' or 'ability'.
The other fascinating aspect is Champagne Fever's run style. Not unlike Cue Card he runs from the front and is highly responsive to pace change-ups, as showcased in the Supreme Novices. But he will undoubtedly stay further (Roselier features in his breeding, for example) and it is most likely his high levels of residual class that is making him so effective at the minimum trip. As the level of opponent rises, however, it becomes more difficult for him to make those tactical moves hurt his opponents, because their own ability is sufficiently high enough to cope. Until we see more of Champagne Fever it is difficult to say whether that aspect of his running power will play a part; he may be better with a more progressive, lung-bursting gallop.
Beyond these main three at this stage it is difficult to envisage another opponent materialising. Of those mentioned in general dispatches only Felix Yonger stands out in terms of ability but he is more likely to be aimed at the Jewson Novices Chase given he is a stablemate of Champagne Fever. Certainly for now he is more style over substance which, although not his fault, makes him a little tricky to fully assess as yet. Willie Mullins revealed he was surprised by how good he looked over two miles when beating Defy Logic which again points to expectations over a longer trip. It is possible also that Felix Yonger has raced against two horses either with or recovering from breathing problems. Defy Logic races very much on the bridle and from the front but finds little for pressure. Trifolium's breathing issues were well known. He raced unevenly and far too keenly (fast) from the front and no sooner had Felix Yonger closed him down he was passed him and gone. Trifolium had emptied his energy in a way which suggested his problems were not fully behind him and jumped very tiredly and to the left over the last fence and was allowed to trot over towards the line. Ruby Walsh noted how fast Trifolium had gone and how Felix Yonger had been "hanging on" to that pace suggesting clearly enough that more distance will be afforded him in the future.
Grandouet's recent form figures of F6U2 tell a story of physicality that few are keen to look into. When Captain Chris, in his Arkle winning season, racked up four defeats each time finishing second and beaten ten lengths on his first two starts, few would have thought with any zest that he had a Championship race within him, but within him he had just that, and he beat a future Queen Mother Champion Chaser to boot. This is not assessment by proxy; as will be outlined below, sometimes good horses just clash. The best horse usually wins, but on the day the best horse that is most physically mature will nearly always win. A simple trace reveals that Grandouet was on course for a defining Champion Hurdle assault when an infection cost him his trial race and subsequently his place in the big event. He then endured a number of small niggles leading to his first run back being a full year since his previous one. He had taken a lot of training, without being able to race. He then fell in the big event, when arguably overtrained (he was 'grabbing' at his hurdles), before running flat at Aintree (20f) when Geraghty reported that he would not have won at any trip (although he ran well to the 16f point), and then he was turned out for the summer.
Prior to starting his novice chase campaign then, Grandouet had had just three runs since he missed his first Kingwell Hurdle in February 2012 and only one of those was satisfactory (his excellent reappearance run in the International Hurdle). The rest of his time has been spent on the easy list and in and out of proper training. One thing that will have remained constant in this time, as with Hinterland during his difficulties, is physical maturation since his days as a wiry 4yo. Grandouet is quite a stunning looking, athletic animal, not dissimilar to his Triumph Hurdle conqueror, Zarkandar. In his two runs so far it can be seen that Grandouet has developed more of a chaser's physique and the fact that he has appeared twice confirms that, so far, he is part of a full and ongoing training programme. Notably for Henderson, he assigned Grandouet to a course that places high demands on jumping precision and athleticism as well as stamina, with a tiring run to the line after the last fence. He is clearly intent on teaching Grandouet what a 'proper' race is about, without being concerned with winning every race (although that is usually preferable). For his part the horse has responded with some excellent jumping (as has Hinterland) and settled much more professionally on his second start, perhaps the biggest sign yet that his mentality is developing in accord with his physique. He has come up against a slick, honed rival with greater race experience over fences and responded off the bridle to race with determination behind it. With another three months of development ahead Grandouet has time to learn further still that an even distribution of energy is important to him; if allowed a season of uninterrupted training his body will finally get the chance to deliver on the years of promise that footnote his career to date.
Will that be enough to topple Champagne Fever? The horse that is rightly favourite has already mastered the Cheltenham Festival twice and now seeks an unprecedented third gold medal, this time in a division he has worked so productively towards. He was untroubled on his only start so far this season over 20f and he looks set for a route to the Festival that very good horses take. His next race will tell us more, especially if it is the Racing Post Novices Chase over 17f at Leopardstown, after which will come the Irish Arkle or the Opera Hat Chase then Cheltenham. Meaningful runners from Ireland have gone missing in recent Arkle chases but here they have a horse of considerable potential.
Champagne Fever wasn't flawless himself over hurdles. He was beaten by Jezki in the Royal Bond and then no-showed due to an unknown physical problem in the Slaney (his trainer said he "just wasn't right"). He beat Bright New Dawn - an embryo three mile chaser - in the Deloitte and Mullins got him right (in words reminiscent of Nicholls prior to Al Ferof's Supreme win) for the big day, reversing earlier form with Jezki and given a masterclass front-running ride from his jockey. It is clear that he was helped in his task by the fact that, extraordinarily, My Tent Or Yours was pulling his jockey's arms out for over a mile and a half of the race, so that when the battle to the line ensued he could do nothing to haul back Champagne Fever, who in any case fended him off resolutely with an iron mentality. An interesting sidenote is that Henderson will know pretty much exactly where he stands with Grandouet overall: he could have sent My Tent Or Yours after the elusive Grey much as he (including the owners of course) sent Simonsig over fences no doubt in part because of the power they knew Darlan possessed.
It cannot be forgotten - and discussion of Champagne Fever invariable refers to it - that Champagne Fever won his three mile point race easily and that he has "always been seen as a chaser", impressively schooling over them at some stage following his Bumper season. The defeats suffered by Grandouet and the poor first season of Hinterland have, not unreasonably, led to a kind of gap where in general Champagne Fever is seen as the classiest horse, the best jumper of a fence and by far the likeliest winner. There is some merit in that line of thought - and any mishaps to his two main rivals would certainly add substance therein - but such a line doesn't yet have the evidence to support it. Champagne Fever himself has only had one start against very moderate opposition and the impression emerging is one of his powerhouse trainer knowing just how talented his horse is. This is a pleasing sign for sure but for balance it can be noted that in the Supreme he finished just in front of future Champion Hurdle horses and here if Grandouet progresses through to March he will face a chaser who was good enough to be considered a main player in a Champion Hurdle. It would be hard to imagine in that scenario there being a great deal between the two in terms of 'engine' or 'ability'.
The other fascinating aspect is Champagne Fever's run style. Not unlike Cue Card he runs from the front and is highly responsive to pace change-ups, as showcased in the Supreme Novices. But he will undoubtedly stay further (Roselier features in his breeding, for example) and it is most likely his high levels of residual class that is making him so effective at the minimum trip. As the level of opponent rises, however, it becomes more difficult for him to make those tactical moves hurt his opponents, because their own ability is sufficiently high enough to cope. Until we see more of Champagne Fever it is difficult to say whether that aspect of his running power will play a part; he may be better with a more progressive, lung-bursting gallop.
Beyond these main three at this stage it is difficult to envisage another opponent materialising. Of those mentioned in general dispatches only Felix Yonger stands out in terms of ability but he is more likely to be aimed at the Jewson Novices Chase given he is a stablemate of Champagne Fever. Certainly for now he is more style over substance which, although not his fault, makes him a little tricky to fully assess as yet. Willie Mullins revealed he was surprised by how good he looked over two miles when beating Defy Logic which again points to expectations over a longer trip. It is possible also that Felix Yonger has raced against two horses either with or recovering from breathing problems. Defy Logic races very much on the bridle and from the front but finds little for pressure. Trifolium's breathing issues were well known. He raced unevenly and far too keenly (fast) from the front and no sooner had Felix Yonger closed him down he was passed him and gone. Trifolium had emptied his energy in a way which suggested his problems were not fully behind him and jumped very tiredly and to the left over the last fence and was allowed to trot over towards the line. Ruby Walsh noted how fast Trifolium had gone and how Felix Yonger had been "hanging on" to that pace suggesting clearly enough that more distance will be afforded him in the future.
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