(Brackets) indicate an alternate option more likely.
Arkle Trophy Chase
Potentially Elite
Champagne Fever
Grandouet
[----------------------]
The Rest
The Arkle is a peculiar race and therefore, despite being a novice contest, it features in the #Strategic7 group of races. The core reasons for this need not detain us here but a general point of significance about the race is the recent decline in credible contenders (2008-13 number of runners: 14, 17, 12, 10, 6, 7). The emergence of Sprinter Sacre - the apotheosis of strut - has compensated for this in no uncertain terms but nonetheless the structural observation holds: Sprinter Sacre himself faced one excellent rival over 2m in the shape of Cue Card with Al Ferof seen as more of a 3m type from an early stage. The lack of depth was underscored last season when Simonsig won without facing a single credible Arkle-class contender. Whilst that was indeed unusual, most likely an anomaly, this season could quite possibly have replicated the same situation had Grandouet (at the time of writing) not been confirmed for the novice chase route.
Strategically, however, the Arkle this season presents us with two potentially elite class runners with a wide gap to some 'solid' horses down in the lower cluster. As was pointed out in the main overview of the structural depth model in Part One, there is continual flux and movement to a greater or lesser extent. Whilst no problems are anticipated in the techniques of Champagne Fever and Grandouet over fences it is not inconceivable that one or both could pick up or develop a problem of some kind. Were only one to make the race, there is always a chance of an upset should there be some kind of underlying, undetected physical issue with the superior horse, as the example of Simonsig's win partly hinted at. A horse currently in the lower cluster but with the right Arkle-type credentials could make profound progress through their season to add to the list of challengers, but given the high standard already set by the two at the top it is unlikely; their hand would be known by now. This is therefore an example of a division stretching vertically despite a lack of numbers; compression of talent levels is unlikely. Champagne Fever won a strong-looking renewal of the Supreme Novices Hurdle, having won the Champion Bumper the year before, and his robust, high-class qualities are there for all to see, although he will no doubt desire a stiffer test in time, like so many Arkle runners do (official hurdles rating 157). Grandouet is not one of those, and having twice missed his chance at Festival glory (injury and a fall) in the Champion Hurdle his abundant promise, and speed, will now cast its stare at fences (official hurdles rating 166).
[Those wishing to adhere to the "value myth" have the task of deciding several meta-physical, philosophical things that here are entirely unimportant or not recognised as such. Is Champagne Fever "value" at 7/1? Is Grandouet "value" at 10/1? Which is the "best value"? And so on. They are abstractions, questions that relate barely at all to the very real underlying "worth" of each horse in a structural model that incorporates either of them winning, with virtually no preference, and the exponential effect of such an outcome on other events.]
Price aside (both will self-regulate the other and with no hiccups both will probably start at around 9/4-11/4 based on previous runnings), the task is to monitor any horses making unexpectedly strong progression through the season. By the end of the year any such progression will have become obvious.
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Champion Hurdle
Elite
Hurricane Fly
(Grandouet)
Elite with Exposed Limitations
Rock On Ruby
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Potentially Elite (lower cluster)
The New One
My Tent Or Yours
Jezki
Our Conor
With Grandouet switching to chasing, the elite layer in this division starts to look threadbare. It is held in tact by the ageing yet irrepressible, history-making Hurricane Fly but his elite support is almost non-existent: the exposed pairing of Zarkandar and Countrywide Flame will be missing due to a much needed change in trip and injury respectively, whilst Rock On Ruby delivered an indifferent season following his triumph in 2012. This division is therefore compressed, with the elite looking set for a battle royale in trying to fend off the rise of the novice stars, who are strongly represented as a group.
The reason that even Festival winning novices are not posited in elite company straight away is simply due to the need for confirmation. Placing them below the porous barrier underlines the fact that usually they have work to do to rise into elite, open company. Some manage it extremely easily, some not at all. An example would be Cinders and Ashes. He won the Supreme Novices Hurdle in 2012, beating Darlan. With his ambitious trainer keen to stress how his horse had won the Supreme "without having a race," much was expected of Cinders and Ashes, the Festival winning novice. In a new season in open company, his form figures read 25P, beaten out of sight on each occasion (physical problems are further reasons for caution). This despite the horse he beat in the Supreme, Darlan, progressing to show extraordinary elite potential before sadly losing his life.
As ever the ex-novices can be assessed as they filter into the races with elite opponents but it is striking that each of them have in some way already shown the required level of residual class: they were not 'hidden away' from competition in the build up to the Festival as some novices are and as such in our spatial image from Part One we can begin to imagine them rising through a largely unprotected, porous barrier. Colliding head on with the elite seems inevitable.
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Queen Mother Champion Chase
Super-Elite
Sprinter Sacre
Elite
(Cue Card)
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Potentially Elite (lower cluster)
(Simonsig)
As the brackets indicate, Sprinter Sacre is not to be taken on lightly. Were he to miss the race it is almost certain that both Cue Card and Simonsig (amongst others) would be re-routed to this more prestigious distance. With a degree of certainty it can be said that in any 'normal' Arkle-to-Champion-Chase period Cue Card would have been a standout winner, gently underlining the enormity of Sprinter Sacre's presence in this division. The presence of a member of the super-elite seals off the race, diverting (potentially) elite horses to the Ryanair Chase.
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Ryanair Chase
Elite
Cue Card
Elite with Exposed Limitations
Flemenstar
(First Lieutenant)
(First Lieutenant)
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Potentially Elite (lower cluster)
Simonsig
Dynaste
High class (lower cluster)
Captain Conan
Others
The Ryanair Chase was an excellent addition to the Cheltenham Festival. The contest rarely affects the two mile division owing to Arkle contenders often requiring size, scope and stamina: if they're good enough they'll run on the Tuesday. The Gold Cup is a different matter. Many horses cannot live with an elite class gallop for the punishing distance of a Gold Cup but in being able to sustain or chase that gallop for anything up to three miles they are liable to hurt themselves or sustain a mental fatigue from which recovery is not guaranteed. Some horses capable of rising to Gold Cup level in time are spared the daunting task of having to run in the race before they are ready to do so, or at least, before their connections are happy to consent to such a physical and mental examination of a horse in their care. Imperial Commander's Paddy Power-Ryanair-Gold Cup ascent is an example of the route of progression the Ryanair Chase affords. In betting terms as well as analytically, the Ryanair is rich in information; Imperial Commander also illustrates the golden rule of the race: every winner so far ran in the King George that same season. This so far specific structural regularity may or may not continue in years to come but the overall class indicator to which it points is unmistakeable.
Despite the range of possible contenders of all types, this division has a barrier that is quite rigid. That was not the case in, for example, 2012 but the decision to target Cue Card at this race last year and this has had a profound effect on the depth of the elite group. Having run in this race last year First Lieutenant may step up into Gold Cup territory this season, further cementing the depth of the elite pool in that division. That affords two extremely promising elite contenders the opportunity to step into Cue Card's realm. Dynaste also has the Gold Cup as a possible target. He is due to start in the extended Betfair Chase before tackling the King George but with the competition in those races being particularly fierce and, with his physicality perhaps more tailored for a Ryanair Chase anyway, he could well develop into a key rival for Cue Card. Simonsig's individuality can be discussed at some length elsewhere; but his presence in this race appears most likely for any number of reasons and he too may take in the King George en route.
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World Hurdle
Super-Elite
Big Buck's *(returning)
Elite
Solwhit
Zarkandar
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Potentially Elite (lower cluster)
At Fisher's Cross
Super-elite with a twist. The greatest staying hurdler of all time suffered a minor tendon injury and was given any amount of time required to return to the racecourse. The asterisk indicates a doubt not about his ability to perform to his normal stratospheric level, but about the possibility that the same or any other niggle causes further absence. With two elite level rivals in the wings, the elite pool shines a foreboding beam on any potential up-and-comer. Nonetheless, a barrier that would normally have been rigid is now loosened ever so slightly: only with the progression of time can we assess to what extent that helps the one really viable aspirant from the lower cluster.
In a coincidence of timing, as Big Buck's was off the track recuperating, a horse that appears to possess very similar characteristics burst through the junior ranks of the division. At Fisher's Cross has the swagger, a similar hurdling technique, a string of "1"s, a similar thirst for any ground conditions, the form in the book and the look, the physicality, of a top class horse in waiting. What he lacks in comparison to the Legend, is a furry noseband. With the Champion-In-Absentia Solwhit likely to return and the highly experienced Zarkandar primed to step into the division this race takes on a fascinating complexion with a deep elite pool. Appearances from all the Fab Four in March would be most welcome.
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Gold Cup
Elite
Bobs Worth
Silviniaco Conti
Elite with Exposed Limitations
Sir Des Champs
Long Run
First Lieutenant
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Potentially Elite (Lower Cluster)
Al Ferof
(Dynaste)
Lord Windermere
As indicated in Part One, Bobs Worth's victory on the back of just one run in open company and that start being his only run in nearly twelve months was incredible. Again, his individuality is not in focus here; it is whether his performances and his potential stretch the vertical axis of the division toward a super-elite formation. If he retains his crown that will indeed be the case. He will again face the winners of all the main trials, some of whom he will already have beaten. Were he to miss the race for any reason, the division would be become far more fluid, the barrier more porous.
Summary
Individuals in this milieu are variable; the spatial model more definable. Strong allegiance to any one horse is always an exercise replete with fascination and oscillating emotions. Yet once the structure of each division becomes more opaque the "worth" of each name multiplies. All this without any seasonal information as yet. That is the next task. With the season under way each horse has to be understood relative to the task that will be demanded of him: physicality, mentality, exuberance, grind, residual class, elite level gallop, tactical pace and so on, all relative to the unique requirements of each particular race. The answers to these contests will almost always be obvious after the event. By asking the right questions throughout the season, so too can they be beforehand.
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