Everything has been said before, but since nobody listens we have to keep going back and beginning all over again
- André Gide
Roar.
Quite often during a season some things make plain little sense and the campaign and demands assigned to The Liquidator echo back through the winter months. The Liquidator's fourth to Briar Hill in the Cheltenham Bumper suggested many possible things but he didn't travel through the race under the cover of a two miler, lacking tactical gallop pace at crucial points but staying on resolutely. Of course, we are not to know his level of maturity or stage of physicality at that point and his opening stroll around Carlisle this season revealed little.
His next start was "interesting", at Cheltenham on good ground in a Supreme Novices titled trial race (17f), but the analytics of the performance revealed any number of concerns. As a race it was a non-event with none of his three opponents proving capable or interested in racing him on the day. It emerged after that they had wanted "to take the sting out of Sea Lord's finish" but that horse was struggling from a long way out, perhaps with a physical problem (hasn't raced since). The Liquidator therefore set off in front and at a good pace, slightly keen early on but well enough settled with proficient jumping. Interestingly, he was going so unnecessarily fast having run downhill to two out that although jumping the hurdle well enough he almost pecked significantly on landing, but did well to maintain his balance and pick up his gallop. Nonetheless, this was not a performance that allowed for an even distribution of energy; nor was it the run of a "speedy" two miler in a stalking-the-pace mode. Approaching and around the final bend his jockey began shaking his reins repeatedly with a slap to the neck each time: asking for more, almost like a test. On straightening to aim at the hill he was given a crack of the whip - all this despite being well clear with the race won having already gone unnecessarily quick - and with the horse appearing to tire from his earlier running, was ridden strongly out towards the line.
Afterwards his trainer admitted that it was "not the ideal way to ride him today" referring to his own choice of tactics with his jockey pointing to winning the Punchestown Champion Bumper as an indication of stamina requirements. Overall, this run was a clear exercise in learning more about the horse's On/Behind bridle ratio and his energy distribution capabilities. When the stamina sapping Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown was switched to the sharper, speedier Kempton Park track David Pipe was much less keen to run in the race, but still did so.
Lean and Keen: The Liquidator's 'barrel' or girth appears slight towards the back end or flank hind
The Liquidator was disappointing, beaten a long way out. As at Cheltenham he seemed to naturally tire a long way out but this time the competition was much stronger and they glided past him easily. His energy distribution is a major concern and could be symptomatic of a physical/breathing problem. His lean back-end is also a worry and he would do well to be afforded more time to mature and strengthen.
Wicklow Brave did not run over hurdles until the beginning of this year after running five times in under six months in Bumper races. He was given a three month break at the end of last year and presumably the plan was always to allow him to contest a couple of moderate hurdle races before taking in the Festival. He is clearly talented as, his debut aside, but for a narrow reverse in a twenty-three runner Bumper in May he would be unbeaten. He has the ability to travel through moderate races comfortably and his superiority in his races to date has arisen from the strong work he performs during the "on" aspect of his bridle ratio. That said, he was made to work hard for his victory on more than one Bumper occasion and has shown that he can transfer energy behind the bridle in sufficient amounts to maintain his galloping advantage over his pursuers.
On debut he drew away from the field effortlessly from well within his comfort zone, a performance that can be seen on almost any racecourse throughout the season. His most recent start was a better race, contested by two Gigginstown Stud representatives and one of those, Lieutenant Colonel, had chased home Vautour in a thirty-runner maiden hurdle prior to winning himself by fourteen lengths next time. On heavy ground Wicklow Brave showed a willing mentality but one that lacked a little professionalism as in closing the ground on his two main rivals from third place he rattled the top of the second last and then skewed his back end as he bundled through the last, before picking up and drawing away without much effort. An excellent and more detailed review of that performance and his other runs can be found here. The concerns here relate to his energy distribution curve. He would not be the first high-profile two-mile novice hurdler to fight for his head and jump naively at times but seldom do such horses win Supreme Novice Hurdles. The question is whether he sheds unnecessary energy through the race and, if not, whether his ability is then sufficient to take him deep into the race. Overall, the fact that he has not been asked to contest a Graded race during his preparation may hint at some of the mental and professional fragility at this early stage. Wicklow Brave has cruise-and-stalk momentum which will be suited to better ground and there is nothing wrong at all with an under-the-radar, gentle approach to this race but the suspicion remains that he will lack the levels of concentration needed to hurdle efficiently as he copes with a more frantic gallop at a much higher level.
Concentrate: Wicklow Brave bends down the last hurdle at Punchestown. Mistakes happen but the mentality must be mature enough to overcome them during a Festival level gallop
In contrast to Wicklow Brave, Josses Hill was assigned a Grade One contest on only his second start. Before then he had run twice in Bumpers: the first when second and slammed 22L by Faugheen (16f, Y); the second when comfortably winning (16f, G/S). Josses Hill is already a six year old and his frame has acquired the physical stamp of a chaser, so the question is to what extent is that frame being filled by muscular, physical strength and how much is being asked of him by connections this season. Certainly his trainer had no reservations about running him in a 22-runner field at Newbury in soft ground on debut in December. This was a fairly robust physical assignment and the inference seems to be that connections wanted as full an experience as possible, with the enduring feeling that they wanted to mould their horse to the conditions of a big two mile event. Josses Hill went through the race in sixth place, before gradually improving as the leaders stretched the pace three from the finish down the home straight. He got a slap on the neck after jumping three out then he jumped two out too big, which earned him another slap on the neck and a crack of the whip, all the time giving the impression that he just needed that bit more time to organise himself and start rolling more powerfully. Held together by his jockey, that gathering momentum moved him into joint leader going over the last and although given a faint tap of the whip on the run-in it was his ability and power that were finally taking him three lengths clear of his rivals, offering more as the finishing line drew closer. This was quite impressive given the conditions.
His next assignment was to be in a Grade One, with stamina over two miles seemingly preferred. His stablemate, Royal Boy, had been selected to be the 20f horse of the two but with unpleasantly deep conditions at Warwick for his intended race a drop in distance to this race was advanced once it had been rearranged. The two would fight out a sustained, duelling finish not unlike that between My Tent Or Yours and The New One at Kempton. With this performance, Josses Hill confirmed several things: he has galloping power to hold a position in a top race but that position may not be as close as tracking but at best close up; he does not shed any notable energy as he does not pull and is not keen; he has a professional mentality; and his optimal energy distribution range is quite central as he does not have blistering pace but nor has he abundant stamina. As they went over two out Royal Boy and Josses Hill were as one. On the approach to the last McCoy on Royal Boy angled his whip out and gave his mount a couple of cracks whereas Geraghty on Josses Hill was content to hold his horse together, encouraged only by a brief shake of the reins. They both appeared to have plenty of energy left as they cleared the last hurdle comfortably. As indicated by the motion of their jockeys, Royal Boy had been the first to begin the process of transferring his energy behind the bridle and lost only a stride in so doing. Josses Hill touched down over the last hurdle first, just, and marginally nosed in front as his jockey went for the whip: he did not falter or flinch and galloped straight and true, but Royal Boy's power was now behind the bridle to a greater extent and with that he got back to his rival and went beyond him.
Josses Hill is a physically strong, impressive galloper - in many ways he is the kind of Supreme Novices horse not normally associated with his trainer. Depending on how the race unfolds, he may lose his position momentarily to a raw injection of pace but a key tactical pace change-up of that nature is unlikely to affect him greatly and if given the time he will start rolling towards the line with ominous intent. If he can hold his position, or if there is a pace burn-up on the front end, he should be well situated to take full advantage, although his bigger jumps over his hurdles will expend precious energy if they occur. He is talented but a little raw.
Irving is learning. At Taunton on debut (17f, Good) he was young and wild and free, a sure sign of mental inexperience. Following a long conversation with his jockey he did eventually relent and went through the remaining race transitions smoothly and effortlessly. At Ascot next time (16f, GS) he appeared to have been learning well as in the early stages of the race he was almost sleepy in comparison, despite a chronically slow gallop where he could have been forgiven for being quite upset with it all. As it was he pinged a hurdle near halfway and wanted to take off, quickly accepting his jockey's instructions not to do so and, when the race turned into a brief dash around the final bend, he took the race into his care as soon as two out and extended away.
Irving returned to Ascot (16f, Soft) for the Grade Two Kennel Gate Novices Hurdle. Here the pace was more normal, at least in terms of a six-runner Graded race, and was dictated by Splash of Ginge all the way to two from home albeit with his jockey knowing that he would be swamped by speedier types - his own horse needing a much more proactive end-to-end gallop. Irving settled professionally. This is important to note, from the head-swinging inexperienced appearance at Taunton to a brief show of impatience at Ascot to Ascot again and immediately settling into a racing rhythm. It may be that the really soft ground dulled his desire to expend himself but mentally the penny had dropped. He was fifth of the six runners most of the way and running comfortably when a faller three out and some movement on his outside left him last of the five runners having not lost any ground - three lengths covered first to last and rounding the final bend.
Where Do I Go Now? (Back, middle): Irving's even energy distribution through the race allowed him to execute his race transitions easily at Ascot
As the runners fanned out into the straight, Nick Schofield was content to let his horse take him over the second last still at the rear. As the smooth travelling Prince Siegfried edged in front of Irving and towards the centre, Irving was asked to switch to the outside and immediately begin racing, responding quickly to make up the length deficit and edge in front of his rival approaching the last where he was in front as Prince Siegfried fell. It was an example of a fairly rapid burst of energy from within the comfort zone of his bridle ratio - or that much looser term, speed. Ridden and pushed out he completed his race well.
Although it can be suggested that his first three wins of the season were moderate affairs and he has simply done what has been asked of him, in so doing he appeared to eradicate any analytical doubts that may have come his way. He has a distinctive On/Behind bridle ratio that relies on the former winning him the race which can be contrasted to the pair of Josses Hill and Vautour, who are more evenly paced gallopers. The smaller the field, the better the ground, the more sedate the pace - so then would Irving become an even more menacing force, providing he continued the mental progression witnessed in his first three starts here.
In the Dovecote he gave notice of that further progression. He won with authority and not a moments worry. That said, this race in many ways echoed the previous three: moderate opponents, small fields and running right-handed. Potential concerns emerged too; many would refer to the victory as a "really smooth display" as he approached the winning line, but standing back a little it was fluency that was lacking somewhat. He again settled instantly so it would be a surprise were he to show any keenness at Cheltenham but his early jumps were less than smooth, he was staccato at the first, second and fourth, having glided over the third. Here we can acknowledge the presence of usually insignificant micro-analysis but there is a wider point. Irving shattered the top of the second last hurdle with force and, without a bother, carried on regardless. But this allied to his earlier less-than-fluent jumps creates the image of a horse that is under no pressure and well within his comfort zone at all times but yet cannot quite seem to command his hurdles in his own mind, something that could cost him precious time and rhythm should there be an opponent primed to make him pay for any indiscretions. The scenarios that see him win are simple to imagine, however.
Angled: At the last hurdle, under no pressure, Irving's body is angling downwards, conveying a slight lack of technical command
VAUTOUR offers the potential for a rare Festival agreement: open expectation with racecourse performance. He debuted in a thirty-runner maiden hurdle at Navan in early December and won easily but his next race offered a sterner test, not least because in the interim period between the two races it had become clear that he had earned the "most exciting" tag from his powerful trainer and owner. That kind of hierarchical elevation occurs at all stables of course and at any one time it is only significant when expectation is confirmed by performance and Festival target race suitability. Annie Power, for example, has not confirmed the latter during her season.
In the Grade Two Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle Vautour provided a performance replete with analytical strength yet not uncommonly the general reaction was one of mild disappointment. This is understandable: it is easier (whether fruitfully or not) to invest in or align oneself behind a horse that has won cosily, visually impressively, or by half the track and so on. But as always defeats and races where things are difficult often reveal far more and this was a case in point, Vautour being sent off at one to four, only to be eyeballed on the run-in and have to race with power to claim the win. The race cannot be understood without reference to the individual physicality and stage of training of each horse. The runner-up, Western Boy, had already run three times that season: twice in Bumpers and in a seventeen runner soft ground maiden hurdle, so he had six miles of racing in his legs, allied to the training and conditioning involved therein. As with the same trainer's Morning Assembly, for Western Boy "it is not all about this year" with the trainer noting that "he is a light-framed horse" and "fingers crossed he stays sound", a mood that hints at an underlying fragile physicality. But that he is thought very well of is not in doubt and in the race he tracked Vautour effectively, jumping the last slightly better than his rival and finding a brief surge of energy to get alongside before being outmuscled / outpowered.
Physically, VAUTOUR was described as being "as big as a float" by his trainer. He is considered to be in the chasing mould and he has clear muscular power in the forward aspect of his body. He had raced only once in the season to this point and his stage of training and progression was much different to that of Western Boy. His trainer would be slowly building him up for the Deloitte Novices Hurdle or another prestigious trial race after this contest, whereas Western Boy would be being let down after this event and "minded" to the Festival, should he run well enough, which he certainly did. Vautour had more physical progression, race conditioning and strengthening to come after this race and - although not necessarily related - his energy distribution and race transitions indicated as much. He was keen early and racing too freely, shedding energy. He was also positioned in around third of the six runners on the inside rail. Whilst his size means he is unlikely to be intimidated by a big field, here it meant that his jockey had to try and angle his inexperienced horse off the rail to the outside of the leading horse. His jockey had already turned his horse's head once to prevent him from galloping too closely onto the heels of the front-runner and he managed to angle his horse out on the approach to the final bend. His stage of physical progression, the energy-shedding keenness early on, the moderate gallop - all this meant that off the final bend Vautour had to start transferring energy behind the bridle quite quickly, encouraged to do so by his jockey, and probably explains why he fiddled the last hurdle as he was only just beginning to race with the power he had transferred at that stage. His rival seized his chance but once rolling away from the hurdle again Vautour secured the race quite easily.
Petrol: Vautour's advantage is closed down after the last hurdle but he still had the fuel to pull away comfortably before the line
For his next race Vautour would need to be much fitter (more race conditioned) and race with more control throughout the contest. The Deloitte (18f Soft/Hvy) was an exhibition of those aspects. Conscious of his horse's bridle ratio, Ruby Walsh assumed control of the race at the start and made his own gallop. His horse settled and jumped professionally and accurately bar one that he fiddled slightly, most likely because his jockey had just asked him to inject some pace before slowing again. The race transitions became smooth, energy distribution optimal, and when racing proper after the final bend he was still well within his comfort zone, pinging the last and only having to be pushed out to maintain his clear advantage. It was a very professional Grade One performance. It was of course reminiscent of the ride given to Champagne Fever at Cheltenham last season and the analytical point is the same: energy distribution. Even if Vautour is the best horse in the race his chance would be seriously compromised by shedding energy early on in the way that he did at Punchestown. In that scenario in March it would be more difficult to conserve enough energy for the latter stages and hand a potential advantage to those behind him, who would subsequently be able to close him down more easily with the pace change-up potential of their bridle ratios. Whereas - leading is not essential - if Vautour controls his energy distribution and effects the smoothness of race transitions he did at Leopardstown it puts additional pressure on those horses that are using up the majority of their energy in the "On" aspect of their bridle ratio, because what will be needed to down Vautour in this scenario is strong reserves of energy at the end of the race, the very thing that failed My Tent Or Yours last season, despite his actual effort being the maximum.
Quite often during a season some things make plain little sense and the campaign and demands assigned to The Liquidator echo back through the winter months. The Liquidator's fourth to Briar Hill in the Cheltenham Bumper suggested many possible things but he didn't travel through the race under the cover of a two miler, lacking tactical gallop pace at crucial points but staying on resolutely. Of course, we are not to know his level of maturity or stage of physicality at that point and his opening stroll around Carlisle this season revealed little.
His next start was "interesting", at Cheltenham on good ground in a Supreme Novices titled trial race (17f), but the analytics of the performance revealed any number of concerns. As a race it was a non-event with none of his three opponents proving capable or interested in racing him on the day. It emerged after that they had wanted "to take the sting out of Sea Lord's finish" but that horse was struggling from a long way out, perhaps with a physical problem (hasn't raced since). The Liquidator therefore set off in front and at a good pace, slightly keen early on but well enough settled with proficient jumping. Interestingly, he was going so unnecessarily fast having run downhill to two out that although jumping the hurdle well enough he almost pecked significantly on landing, but did well to maintain his balance and pick up his gallop. Nonetheless, this was not a performance that allowed for an even distribution of energy; nor was it the run of a "speedy" two miler in a stalking-the-pace mode. Approaching and around the final bend his jockey began shaking his reins repeatedly with a slap to the neck each time: asking for more, almost like a test. On straightening to aim at the hill he was given a crack of the whip - all this despite being well clear with the race won having already gone unnecessarily quick - and with the horse appearing to tire from his earlier running, was ridden strongly out towards the line.
Afterwards his trainer admitted that it was "not the ideal way to ride him today" referring to his own choice of tactics with his jockey pointing to winning the Punchestown Champion Bumper as an indication of stamina requirements. Overall, this run was a clear exercise in learning more about the horse's On/Behind bridle ratio and his energy distribution capabilities. When the stamina sapping Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown was switched to the sharper, speedier Kempton Park track David Pipe was much less keen to run in the race, but still did so.
Lean and Keen: The Liquidator's 'barrel' or girth appears slight towards the back end or flank hind
The Liquidator was disappointing, beaten a long way out. As at Cheltenham he seemed to naturally tire a long way out but this time the competition was much stronger and they glided past him easily. His energy distribution is a major concern and could be symptomatic of a physical/breathing problem. His lean back-end is also a worry and he would do well to be afforded more time to mature and strengthen.
Wicklow Brave did not run over hurdles until the beginning of this year after running five times in under six months in Bumper races. He was given a three month break at the end of last year and presumably the plan was always to allow him to contest a couple of moderate hurdle races before taking in the Festival. He is clearly talented as, his debut aside, but for a narrow reverse in a twenty-three runner Bumper in May he would be unbeaten. He has the ability to travel through moderate races comfortably and his superiority in his races to date has arisen from the strong work he performs during the "on" aspect of his bridle ratio. That said, he was made to work hard for his victory on more than one Bumper occasion and has shown that he can transfer energy behind the bridle in sufficient amounts to maintain his galloping advantage over his pursuers.
On debut he drew away from the field effortlessly from well within his comfort zone, a performance that can be seen on almost any racecourse throughout the season. His most recent start was a better race, contested by two Gigginstown Stud representatives and one of those, Lieutenant Colonel, had chased home Vautour in a thirty-runner maiden hurdle prior to winning himself by fourteen lengths next time. On heavy ground Wicklow Brave showed a willing mentality but one that lacked a little professionalism as in closing the ground on his two main rivals from third place he rattled the top of the second last and then skewed his back end as he bundled through the last, before picking up and drawing away without much effort. An excellent and more detailed review of that performance and his other runs can be found here. The concerns here relate to his energy distribution curve. He would not be the first high-profile two-mile novice hurdler to fight for his head and jump naively at times but seldom do such horses win Supreme Novice Hurdles. The question is whether he sheds unnecessary energy through the race and, if not, whether his ability is then sufficient to take him deep into the race. Overall, the fact that he has not been asked to contest a Graded race during his preparation may hint at some of the mental and professional fragility at this early stage. Wicklow Brave has cruise-and-stalk momentum which will be suited to better ground and there is nothing wrong at all with an under-the-radar, gentle approach to this race but the suspicion remains that he will lack the levels of concentration needed to hurdle efficiently as he copes with a more frantic gallop at a much higher level.
Concentrate: Wicklow Brave bends down the last hurdle at Punchestown. Mistakes happen but the mentality must be mature enough to overcome them during a Festival level gallop
In contrast to Wicklow Brave, Josses Hill was assigned a Grade One contest on only his second start. Before then he had run twice in Bumpers: the first when second and slammed 22L by Faugheen (16f, Y); the second when comfortably winning (16f, G/S). Josses Hill is already a six year old and his frame has acquired the physical stamp of a chaser, so the question is to what extent is that frame being filled by muscular, physical strength and how much is being asked of him by connections this season. Certainly his trainer had no reservations about running him in a 22-runner field at Newbury in soft ground on debut in December. This was a fairly robust physical assignment and the inference seems to be that connections wanted as full an experience as possible, with the enduring feeling that they wanted to mould their horse to the conditions of a big two mile event. Josses Hill went through the race in sixth place, before gradually improving as the leaders stretched the pace three from the finish down the home straight. He got a slap on the neck after jumping three out then he jumped two out too big, which earned him another slap on the neck and a crack of the whip, all the time giving the impression that he just needed that bit more time to organise himself and start rolling more powerfully. Held together by his jockey, that gathering momentum moved him into joint leader going over the last and although given a faint tap of the whip on the run-in it was his ability and power that were finally taking him three lengths clear of his rivals, offering more as the finishing line drew closer. This was quite impressive given the conditions.
His next assignment was to be in a Grade One, with stamina over two miles seemingly preferred. His stablemate, Royal Boy, had been selected to be the 20f horse of the two but with unpleasantly deep conditions at Warwick for his intended race a drop in distance to this race was advanced once it had been rearranged. The two would fight out a sustained, duelling finish not unlike that between My Tent Or Yours and The New One at Kempton. With this performance, Josses Hill confirmed several things: he has galloping power to hold a position in a top race but that position may not be as close as tracking but at best close up; he does not shed any notable energy as he does not pull and is not keen; he has a professional mentality; and his optimal energy distribution range is quite central as he does not have blistering pace but nor has he abundant stamina. As they went over two out Royal Boy and Josses Hill were as one. On the approach to the last McCoy on Royal Boy angled his whip out and gave his mount a couple of cracks whereas Geraghty on Josses Hill was content to hold his horse together, encouraged only by a brief shake of the reins. They both appeared to have plenty of energy left as they cleared the last hurdle comfortably. As indicated by the motion of their jockeys, Royal Boy had been the first to begin the process of transferring his energy behind the bridle and lost only a stride in so doing. Josses Hill touched down over the last hurdle first, just, and marginally nosed in front as his jockey went for the whip: he did not falter or flinch and galloped straight and true, but Royal Boy's power was now behind the bridle to a greater extent and with that he got back to his rival and went beyond him.
Josses Hill is a physically strong, impressive galloper - in many ways he is the kind of Supreme Novices horse not normally associated with his trainer. Depending on how the race unfolds, he may lose his position momentarily to a raw injection of pace but a key tactical pace change-up of that nature is unlikely to affect him greatly and if given the time he will start rolling towards the line with ominous intent. If he can hold his position, or if there is a pace burn-up on the front end, he should be well situated to take full advantage, although his bigger jumps over his hurdles will expend precious energy if they occur. He is talented but a little raw.
Irving is learning. At Taunton on debut (17f, Good) he was young and wild and free, a sure sign of mental inexperience. Following a long conversation with his jockey he did eventually relent and went through the remaining race transitions smoothly and effortlessly. At Ascot next time (16f, GS) he appeared to have been learning well as in the early stages of the race he was almost sleepy in comparison, despite a chronically slow gallop where he could have been forgiven for being quite upset with it all. As it was he pinged a hurdle near halfway and wanted to take off, quickly accepting his jockey's instructions not to do so and, when the race turned into a brief dash around the final bend, he took the race into his care as soon as two out and extended away.
Irving returned to Ascot (16f, Soft) for the Grade Two Kennel Gate Novices Hurdle. Here the pace was more normal, at least in terms of a six-runner Graded race, and was dictated by Splash of Ginge all the way to two from home albeit with his jockey knowing that he would be swamped by speedier types - his own horse needing a much more proactive end-to-end gallop. Irving settled professionally. This is important to note, from the head-swinging inexperienced appearance at Taunton to a brief show of impatience at Ascot to Ascot again and immediately settling into a racing rhythm. It may be that the really soft ground dulled his desire to expend himself but mentally the penny had dropped. He was fifth of the six runners most of the way and running comfortably when a faller three out and some movement on his outside left him last of the five runners having not lost any ground - three lengths covered first to last and rounding the final bend.
Where Do I Go Now? (Back, middle): Irving's even energy distribution through the race allowed him to execute his race transitions easily at Ascot
As the runners fanned out into the straight, Nick Schofield was content to let his horse take him over the second last still at the rear. As the smooth travelling Prince Siegfried edged in front of Irving and towards the centre, Irving was asked to switch to the outside and immediately begin racing, responding quickly to make up the length deficit and edge in front of his rival approaching the last where he was in front as Prince Siegfried fell. It was an example of a fairly rapid burst of energy from within the comfort zone of his bridle ratio - or that much looser term, speed. Ridden and pushed out he completed his race well.
Although it can be suggested that his first three wins of the season were moderate affairs and he has simply done what has been asked of him, in so doing he appeared to eradicate any analytical doubts that may have come his way. He has a distinctive On/Behind bridle ratio that relies on the former winning him the race which can be contrasted to the pair of Josses Hill and Vautour, who are more evenly paced gallopers. The smaller the field, the better the ground, the more sedate the pace - so then would Irving become an even more menacing force, providing he continued the mental progression witnessed in his first three starts here.
In the Dovecote he gave notice of that further progression. He won with authority and not a moments worry. That said, this race in many ways echoed the previous three: moderate opponents, small fields and running right-handed. Potential concerns emerged too; many would refer to the victory as a "really smooth display" as he approached the winning line, but standing back a little it was fluency that was lacking somewhat. He again settled instantly so it would be a surprise were he to show any keenness at Cheltenham but his early jumps were less than smooth, he was staccato at the first, second and fourth, having glided over the third. Here we can acknowledge the presence of usually insignificant micro-analysis but there is a wider point. Irving shattered the top of the second last hurdle with force and, without a bother, carried on regardless. But this allied to his earlier less-than-fluent jumps creates the image of a horse that is under no pressure and well within his comfort zone at all times but yet cannot quite seem to command his hurdles in his own mind, something that could cost him precious time and rhythm should there be an opponent primed to make him pay for any indiscretions. The scenarios that see him win are simple to imagine, however.
Angled: At the last hurdle, under no pressure, Irving's body is angling downwards, conveying a slight lack of technical command
VAUTOUR offers the potential for a rare Festival agreement: open expectation with racecourse performance. He debuted in a thirty-runner maiden hurdle at Navan in early December and won easily but his next race offered a sterner test, not least because in the interim period between the two races it had become clear that he had earned the "most exciting" tag from his powerful trainer and owner. That kind of hierarchical elevation occurs at all stables of course and at any one time it is only significant when expectation is confirmed by performance and Festival target race suitability. Annie Power, for example, has not confirmed the latter during her season.
In the Grade Two Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle Vautour provided a performance replete with analytical strength yet not uncommonly the general reaction was one of mild disappointment. This is understandable: it is easier (whether fruitfully or not) to invest in or align oneself behind a horse that has won cosily, visually impressively, or by half the track and so on. But as always defeats and races where things are difficult often reveal far more and this was a case in point, Vautour being sent off at one to four, only to be eyeballed on the run-in and have to race with power to claim the win. The race cannot be understood without reference to the individual physicality and stage of training of each horse. The runner-up, Western Boy, had already run three times that season: twice in Bumpers and in a seventeen runner soft ground maiden hurdle, so he had six miles of racing in his legs, allied to the training and conditioning involved therein. As with the same trainer's Morning Assembly, for Western Boy "it is not all about this year" with the trainer noting that "he is a light-framed horse" and "fingers crossed he stays sound", a mood that hints at an underlying fragile physicality. But that he is thought very well of is not in doubt and in the race he tracked Vautour effectively, jumping the last slightly better than his rival and finding a brief surge of energy to get alongside before being outmuscled / outpowered.
Physically, VAUTOUR was described as being "as big as a float" by his trainer. He is considered to be in the chasing mould and he has clear muscular power in the forward aspect of his body. He had raced only once in the season to this point and his stage of training and progression was much different to that of Western Boy. His trainer would be slowly building him up for the Deloitte Novices Hurdle or another prestigious trial race after this contest, whereas Western Boy would be being let down after this event and "minded" to the Festival, should he run well enough, which he certainly did. Vautour had more physical progression, race conditioning and strengthening to come after this race and - although not necessarily related - his energy distribution and race transitions indicated as much. He was keen early and racing too freely, shedding energy. He was also positioned in around third of the six runners on the inside rail. Whilst his size means he is unlikely to be intimidated by a big field, here it meant that his jockey had to try and angle his inexperienced horse off the rail to the outside of the leading horse. His jockey had already turned his horse's head once to prevent him from galloping too closely onto the heels of the front-runner and he managed to angle his horse out on the approach to the final bend. His stage of physical progression, the energy-shedding keenness early on, the moderate gallop - all this meant that off the final bend Vautour had to start transferring energy behind the bridle quite quickly, encouraged to do so by his jockey, and probably explains why he fiddled the last hurdle as he was only just beginning to race with the power he had transferred at that stage. His rival seized his chance but once rolling away from the hurdle again Vautour secured the race quite easily.
Petrol: Vautour's advantage is closed down after the last hurdle but he still had the fuel to pull away comfortably before the line
For his next race Vautour would need to be much fitter (more race conditioned) and race with more control throughout the contest. The Deloitte (18f Soft/Hvy) was an exhibition of those aspects. Conscious of his horse's bridle ratio, Ruby Walsh assumed control of the race at the start and made his own gallop. His horse settled and jumped professionally and accurately bar one that he fiddled slightly, most likely because his jockey had just asked him to inject some pace before slowing again. The race transitions became smooth, energy distribution optimal, and when racing proper after the final bend he was still well within his comfort zone, pinging the last and only having to be pushed out to maintain his clear advantage. It was a very professional Grade One performance. It was of course reminiscent of the ride given to Champagne Fever at Cheltenham last season and the analytical point is the same: energy distribution. Even if Vautour is the best horse in the race his chance would be seriously compromised by shedding energy early on in the way that he did at Punchestown. In that scenario in March it would be more difficult to conserve enough energy for the latter stages and hand a potential advantage to those behind him, who would subsequently be able to close him down more easily with the pace change-up potential of their bridle ratios. Whereas - leading is not essential - if Vautour controls his energy distribution and effects the smoothness of race transitions he did at Leopardstown it puts additional pressure on those horses that are using up the majority of their energy in the "On" aspect of their bridle ratio, because what will be needed to down Vautour in this scenario is strong reserves of energy at the end of the race, the very thing that failed My Tent Or Yours last season, despite his actual effort being the maximum.
Hi Matt, Dead right - well done! John F.
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