A race that continues to provide for runners with very high potential. Even when just taking the recent past into account: Mikael d'Haguenet rattled off a six-timer in his winning season; Peddlers Cross went down by a length to Hurricane Fly in the Champion Hurdle; First Lieutenant came second in the RSA Chase and second in the Ryanair Chase; Simonsig won the Arkle Chase; and The New One is among the favourites for the Champion Hurdle having won the International Hurdle. This is a tough roll-call to get in line for.
Chief among those in waiting is Faugheen. Reference to Pont Alexandre (favourite but well beaten in this race last year for the same stable) is worth dismissing unless it focuses for comparative purposes on their respective physicality, which is the significant aspect. Pont Alexandre had the build of, and ran akin to that of, a strapping three mile chaser. He powered his frame through deep ground against inferior rivals but he did not do it quickly and the accompanying disparity between racecourse evidence, Festival race suitability and general expectation bordered on the enormous. Faugheen is much better situated. He is quite a narrow horse. His chest and shoulders do not offer a great deal of staying power at this stage; he is built to race quickly when required, but the engine does not necessarily cut out over longer trips. Although he is something of an unknown quantity - because he has simply outclassed all his rivals to date - that is not an excuse to opine that he "could be anything" when quite clearly that is not the case (nor is it ever). We also know more about him on the racecourse than was the case with Pont Alexandre, for example. Faugheen won a 24f Point race (as did Simonsig) before dismantling Josses Hill, who looks very promising himself this season. Including his Point victory, the following in-race comments appear: "qckn clr", "quickened clear", "travelled easily...not extended", "eased into lead next...easily" and from his latest and least impressive performance, "easily". That was over three miles in heavy ground but by again outclassing inferior rivals it was a performance that strongly evidenced why three miles under Festival conditions is not something that would be particularly suitable. His On/Behind bridle ratio is very much tilted in favour of the former.
Speed: Faugheen has a smoothness of movement for specific reasons but hurdling could be more fluent
Only recently, Simonsig and The New One's "jumping" was sometimes brought up as a negative, yet both won this race comfortably, Simonsig going on to win an Arkle Chase despite carrying an infection and The New One going on to win an International Hurdle this season. Hurdling techniques are rarely perfect; they combine with or result from the physicality of the horse and the conditions in which they race on any given day. Faugheen on occasion jumps from the shoulder, so he will run to a hurdle and push his shoulders over first leaving the legs a bit stiff and straight as they go over, rather than those components working together in a more fluid movement. Such aspects of micro-analysis rarely present a problem to elite horses so if Faugheen is a top class novice in waiting his hurdling will not affect his Neptune performance in any significant way. As of yet though we have not seen him switch behind the bridle, and that aspect of his physicality is still largely unknown.
Speed: Faugheen has a smoothness of movement for specific reasons but hurdling could be more fluent
Only recently, Simonsig and The New One's "jumping" was sometimes brought up as a negative, yet both won this race comfortably, Simonsig going on to win an Arkle Chase despite carrying an infection and The New One going on to win an International Hurdle this season. Hurdling techniques are rarely perfect; they combine with or result from the physicality of the horse and the conditions in which they race on any given day. Faugheen on occasion jumps from the shoulder, so he will run to a hurdle and push his shoulders over first leaving the legs a bit stiff and straight as they go over, rather than those components working together in a more fluid movement. Such aspects of micro-analysis rarely present a problem to elite horses so if Faugheen is a top class novice in waiting his hurdling will not affect his Neptune performance in any significant way. As of yet though we have not seen him switch behind the bridle, and that aspect of his physicality is still largely unknown.
Which is not the case with the identifiably more robust The Tullow Tank. He is unbeaten this season with two Grade One victories to show for his efforts, winning the latest of those by 8L at Leopardstown. In that race he was obviously well on top at the end of the race but the same was also true for his win in the Royal Bond, despite the much narrower winning margin. In terms of physicality what can be seen on the racecourse has also been clearly stated by his trainer: "He was impressive the last day in that the further he went the better he was...He can race on and off the bridle so [jockey] Danny (Mullins) did well because he's not the easiest ride", whilst bearing in mind that stamina in terms of distance has yet to be asked of the horse, having raced exclusively over two miles thus far (he will race over 18f in the Deloitte Hurdle).
Shoulder Press: The Tullow Tank has size and power on the front end
That physicality is underpinned by the presence of strapping, powerful shoulders. He is a horse of notable size and as such is a much different proposition to Faugheen. He most likely lacks the potential residual class of that horse but a defining aspect of physicality in general is how the underlying engine is used and to that end The Tullow Tank's work in the second half of his races is an admirable strength. In the Royal Bond (Dec 1, goodish ground) he raced prominently in third or fourth; a signpost towards his On/Behind bridle ratio came approaching and rounding the final turn as his reins were being shaken to get closer and once round the bend he began to switch behind the bridle - some way out for a two mile hurdle race. There was no loss of ground and once energised he began his task of wearing down the leader without allowing the rival chasing him much of a look in, powering home in sustained fashion to be well on top at the line.
In the Future Champion Novices Hurdle (Dec 27, soft) the class of race, the minimum distance and the ground likely conspired to make the early part of the race the most demanding he had faced. His jockey later reported that at one point along the back of the course he thought he was going to struggle - the strong wind was affecting his horse too, he said - but The Tullow Tank persevered and found his level subsequently. As previously these were not smooth race transitions but the horse either had the class, the force of will or both to keep rolling and jumping and, faced with the request to race from behind the bridle, decided not to stop answering until the jockey told him to, demolishing the field by eight lengths. The Deloitte Hurdle will reveal more about him and his suitability for a goodish ground top class race over further at the Festival. It is interesting analytically to compare him with Faugheen though: where does the convergence of styles and energy usage favour two talented horses; one whose work is largely within his own comfort zone owing, in all likelihood, to sheer class of engine against one who will be strongest in the latter part of his race, but can it be said he will be in close enough contention to strike without having expended too much energy beforehand?
Thus as with most novice races at the Festival openness of mind can provide for different possible scenarios. One of those involves The Liquidator. David Pipe has one of the outstanding novices of the season in King's Palace: allowed to run from the outset at distances he would excel at, that horse has done almost everything in smooth phases through his races. With The Liquidator his runs over two miles suggest an alteration to the distance is required. His fourth to Briar Hill in the Cheltenham Bumper suggested many possible things but he didn't travel through the race under the cover of a two miler, lacking tactical gallop pace at crucial points but staying on resolutely. Of course, we aren't to know his level of maturity or stage of physicality at that point and his stroll around Carlisle revealed little.
His next start was interesting, at Cheltenham on good ground in a Supreme Novices titled trial race (17f), but the performance and subsequent intimations from his stable revealed that Festival race to be unlikely. As a race it was a non-event with none of his three opponents proving capable or interested in racing him. It emerged after that they had wanted "to take the sting out of Sea Lord's finish" but that horse was struggling from a long way out, perhaps with a physical problem. The Liquidator therefore set off in front and at a good pace, slightly keen early on but well enough settled with proficient jumping. Interestingly, he was going so (unnecessarily) fast having run downhill to two out that although jumping the hurdle well enough he almost pecked significantly on landing, but did well to maintain his balance and pick up his gallop. Nonetheless, this was not a performance that allowed for an even distribution of energy; nor was it a run of a "speedy" two miler in a stalking-the-pace mode. Approaching and around the final bend his jockey began shaking his reins repeatedly with a slap to the neck each time: asking for more, almost like a test. On straightening to aim at the hill he was given a crack of the whip - all this despite being well clear with the race won - and with the horse appearing to tire from his earlier running, was ridden strongly out towards the line.
Afterwards his trainer admitted that it was "not the ideal way to ride him today" referring to his own choice of tactics with his jockey pointing to winning the Punchestown Champion Bumper as an indication of stamina requirements. Overall, this run was a clear exercise in learning more about the horse's On/Behind bridle ratio and his energy distribution capabilities. When the stamina sapping Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown was switched to the sharper, speedier Kempton Park track David Pipe was much less keen to run in the race.
Lean and Keen: The Liquidator's 'barrel' or girth appears slight towards the back end or flank hind
The Liquidator is quite a lean horse with no obvious physical signs as yet of strong staying power. This is most likely why he is being kept to the minimum trip for now (his Dam was a low level staying type) whilst they learn more about his specific in-race capabilities. Competing in a 'proper' race will reveal more about those capabilities for everyone.
January 11: Update following the Tolworth Hurdle: The Liquidator was extremely disappointing, beaten a long way out. As at Cheltenham he seemed to naturally tire a long way out but this time the competition was much stronger and glided past him easily. His energy distribution is a major concern and could be symptomatic of a physical/breathing problem. His lean back-end is also a concern and better ground over a longer trip is likely to be forthcoming. Front-running does not seem to suit him well at all.
January 20:
Royal Boy offers a fairly natural potential conundrum, because it can sometimes be difficult to assess that potential through the mist of powerful connections. Certainly his regular jockey had a similar struggle, as he opted to choose the year younger Josses Hill in the rescheduled Tolworth Hurdle. All of which is compounded by the fact that Royal Boy was not among the original entries for the race, until a reluctance to send him over two and a half miles in deep ground at Warwick led him to Kempton.
Another reason was that he is "not a slow horse" by which his trainer most likely means he has a certain amount of residual class. That is borne out to an extent by his impressive first run (narrowly defeated) over hurdles against Melodic Rendezvous, before finishing third to that horse in the 2013 Tolworth Hurdle where an injury curtailed his season. He reappeared from absence over 21f on good ground at Kempton in a novice chase - so soft ground was not essential - where again he moved as if feeling a physical problem. Given that he was then dropped back to hurdles it is likely to have been muscle problems, but no official reason was given after the race, in which he was beaten 44L.
He remained at middle distances four weeks later for a facile win in a moderate maiden hurdle (his first win under Rules) at Ascot over 22f on soft ground. He was impressive in travelling easily on the bridle until shaken up towards the last to stride away. Markedly up in class - back to the Grade One he tried to win last season - and the energy distribution was similar. Prominent the whole way and moving strongly into the lead rounding the final bend he moved smoothly behind the bridle to begin a war with his stablemate, the pair pulling eleven lengths clear of the remaining runners. What was notable was that for a horse better suited to middle distances, Royal Boy was not stretched out by either the ground or the pace of this two mile contest and he showed tenacity to battle back from being marginally nosed out to master his rival before the line.
In terms of physicality there are some similarities with Finian's Rainbow for the same owner and trainer. Royal Boy won his 3m Point, Finian's Rainbow was unfortunate to fall when leading at the last in his. Both had one hurdles start before going up to Grade One company, Finian's Rainbow went to the Challow Hurdle instead (1L third), and was then prepped by winning a moderate race in February before tackling the Neptune Novices Hurdle, which is now the plan for Royal Boy. The difference comes in that Royal Boy will have had an extra season under Rules to mature physically before running in his Cheltenham target race. This could be significant as Finian's Rainbow perhaps lacked physical maturity and strength in both his Neptune and Arkle attempts, before winning a Champion Chase at the age of nine. So a key aspect of assessing Royal Boy's Neptune potential relies on knowledge of the extent to which he has matured and strengthened in his own right but also comparatively to Finian's Rainbow would be interesting too.
As potentially the chief danger to Faugheen, Royal Boy's smooth race transitions and even energy distribution underpins an On/Behind bridle ratio that is seemingly well-suited to his Festival target. It is interesting to compare those aspects of his physicality with the much different ones of The Tullow Tank.
Touchdown: Josses Hill hits the turf first but Royal Boy is still strong behind the bridle
Thus as with most novice races at the Festival openness of mind can provide for different possible scenarios. One of those involves The Liquidator. David Pipe has one of the outstanding novices of the season in King's Palace: allowed to run from the outset at distances he would excel at, that horse has done almost everything in smooth phases through his races. With The Liquidator his runs over two miles suggest an alteration to the distance is required. His fourth to Briar Hill in the Cheltenham Bumper suggested many possible things but he didn't travel through the race under the cover of a two miler, lacking tactical gallop pace at crucial points but staying on resolutely. Of course, we aren't to know his level of maturity or stage of physicality at that point and his stroll around Carlisle revealed little.
His next start was interesting, at Cheltenham on good ground in a Supreme Novices titled trial race (17f), but the performance and subsequent intimations from his stable revealed that Festival race to be unlikely. As a race it was a non-event with none of his three opponents proving capable or interested in racing him. It emerged after that they had wanted "to take the sting out of Sea Lord's finish" but that horse was struggling from a long way out, perhaps with a physical problem. The Liquidator therefore set off in front and at a good pace, slightly keen early on but well enough settled with proficient jumping. Interestingly, he was going so (unnecessarily) fast having run downhill to two out that although jumping the hurdle well enough he almost pecked significantly on landing, but did well to maintain his balance and pick up his gallop. Nonetheless, this was not a performance that allowed for an even distribution of energy; nor was it a run of a "speedy" two miler in a stalking-the-pace mode. Approaching and around the final bend his jockey began shaking his reins repeatedly with a slap to the neck each time: asking for more, almost like a test. On straightening to aim at the hill he was given a crack of the whip - all this despite being well clear with the race won - and with the horse appearing to tire from his earlier running, was ridden strongly out towards the line.
Afterwards his trainer admitted that it was "not the ideal way to ride him today" referring to his own choice of tactics with his jockey pointing to winning the Punchestown Champion Bumper as an indication of stamina requirements. Overall, this run was a clear exercise in learning more about the horse's On/Behind bridle ratio and his energy distribution capabilities. When the stamina sapping Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown was switched to the sharper, speedier Kempton Park track David Pipe was much less keen to run in the race.
Lean and Keen: The Liquidator's 'barrel' or girth appears slight towards the back end or flank hind
The Liquidator is quite a lean horse with no obvious physical signs as yet of strong staying power. This is most likely why he is being kept to the minimum trip for now (his Dam was a low level staying type) whilst they learn more about his specific in-race capabilities. Competing in a 'proper' race will reveal more about those capabilities for everyone.
January 11: Update following the Tolworth Hurdle: The Liquidator was extremely disappointing, beaten a long way out. As at Cheltenham he seemed to naturally tire a long way out but this time the competition was much stronger and glided past him easily. His energy distribution is a major concern and could be symptomatic of a physical/breathing problem. His lean back-end is also a concern and better ground over a longer trip is likely to be forthcoming. Front-running does not seem to suit him well at all.
January 20:
Royal Boy offers a fairly natural potential conundrum, because it can sometimes be difficult to assess that potential through the mist of powerful connections. Certainly his regular jockey had a similar struggle, as he opted to choose the year younger Josses Hill in the rescheduled Tolworth Hurdle. All of which is compounded by the fact that Royal Boy was not among the original entries for the race, until a reluctance to send him over two and a half miles in deep ground at Warwick led him to Kempton.
Another reason was that he is "not a slow horse" by which his trainer most likely means he has a certain amount of residual class. That is borne out to an extent by his impressive first run (narrowly defeated) over hurdles against Melodic Rendezvous, before finishing third to that horse in the 2013 Tolworth Hurdle where an injury curtailed his season. He reappeared from absence over 21f on good ground at Kempton in a novice chase - so soft ground was not essential - where again he moved as if feeling a physical problem. Given that he was then dropped back to hurdles it is likely to have been muscle problems, but no official reason was given after the race, in which he was beaten 44L.
He remained at middle distances four weeks later for a facile win in a moderate maiden hurdle (his first win under Rules) at Ascot over 22f on soft ground. He was impressive in travelling easily on the bridle until shaken up towards the last to stride away. Markedly up in class - back to the Grade One he tried to win last season - and the energy distribution was similar. Prominent the whole way and moving strongly into the lead rounding the final bend he moved smoothly behind the bridle to begin a war with his stablemate, the pair pulling eleven lengths clear of the remaining runners. What was notable was that for a horse better suited to middle distances, Royal Boy was not stretched out by either the ground or the pace of this two mile contest and he showed tenacity to battle back from being marginally nosed out to master his rival before the line.
In terms of physicality there are some similarities with Finian's Rainbow for the same owner and trainer. Royal Boy won his 3m Point, Finian's Rainbow was unfortunate to fall when leading at the last in his. Both had one hurdles start before going up to Grade One company, Finian's Rainbow went to the Challow Hurdle instead (1L third), and was then prepped by winning a moderate race in February before tackling the Neptune Novices Hurdle, which is now the plan for Royal Boy. The difference comes in that Royal Boy will have had an extra season under Rules to mature physically before running in his Cheltenham target race. This could be significant as Finian's Rainbow perhaps lacked physical maturity and strength in both his Neptune and Arkle attempts, before winning a Champion Chase at the age of nine. So a key aspect of assessing Royal Boy's Neptune potential relies on knowledge of the extent to which he has matured and strengthened in his own right but also comparatively to Finian's Rainbow would be interesting too.
As potentially the chief danger to Faugheen, Royal Boy's smooth race transitions and even energy distribution underpins an On/Behind bridle ratio that is seemingly well-suited to his Festival target. It is interesting to compare those aspects of his physicality with the much different ones of The Tullow Tank.
Touchdown: Josses Hill hits the turf first but Royal Boy is still strong behind the bridle
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