Thursday 2 January 2014

King George VI Chase 2013: Review (plus Lexus Chase 2013)

The Preview for this race captured the significant aspects of the contest. The long-time favourite and eventual runner up Cue Card was beaten, as highlighted, by:

  • Not being able to control the pace of the race, by not being allowed to stop-start the gallop. He was therefore denied a fundamental aspect of his physicality: the need to "fill up" in order to continue racing within his comfort zone;
  • His own peculiar On/Behind bridle ratio. As pointed to specifically, Cue Card either wins comfortably through sheer class or is "swept aside" because, once challenged, it means he is forced to switch behind the bridle where his ability is dramatically minimised. Here he faced an elite opponent able to go his gallop, but also able to race with power behind the bridle, something Cue Card lacks;
  • The ground, but only possibly. As a top class elite horse Cue Card handles any ground, but a good ground King George may just have helped him "yo-yo" his pursuers in a way that he was simply unable to do here, with Silviniaco Conti able to challenge him throughout, even after a mistake six out. But equally there would still have come a point when Cue Card's comfort zone petrol hit Empty, and the outcome of that would have been the same, perhaps just closer to the finishing line. 
  • And, of course, a better staying three mile chaser with a more suitable physicality.

Some of the general discussion after the race mentioned how it was "strange" that Cue Card should "just apparently empty" between two out and the last. But it is only "strange" if there is a failure to identify beforehand the specific characteristics a top class horse is likely to exhibit. In the Preview the key question was posed as:


This leads us in a way to Cue Card's conundrum. What is the ratio of the amount of energy and class he expends on the bridle (racing comfortably) to that expended when challenged?

It received a quite specific answer during the race. His On/Behind bridle ratio was illuminated "down the stretch". Joe Tizzard said: 

"I think Paul [Nicholls] and Noel [Fehily] had a good game-plan," he commented. "They sat close, virtually touching me all the way, so I was never able, at any stage, to get in front and fill him up. I was starting to come under a bit of pressure [going to the second-last fence], but I thought I had enough to keep me going. But generally it was a good run and the best horse on the day won."

Here Tizzard is making specific reference to the tactics employed in Cue Card's Ryanair Chase and Betfair Chase victories, repeatedly slowing the pace in front and filling up with oxygen then going on again. He highlights the point at which Cue Card was required to switch behind the bridle, coming under pressure towards the second last, so after that jump he would need to switch fully and start to race and grind and use different qualities. But his energy distribution at this stage was shot through. The vast majority of Cue Card's racing is done within his own comfort zone and at a level few can cope with. But at elite level one or two horses (other than Sprinter Sacre) are able to gallop with him and in staying races those horses have a different On/Behind bridle ratio - they can race effectively and with power off the bridle, displaying a more even curve of energy distribution, and Silviniaco Conti was one of those horses. 

Notably, the jockey as well as opinion in general saw the problem of defeat as a matter of ground, or of ground and track, or of ground, track and tactics. All these are almost useless as indicators of race performance in this case. What was important was Cue Card's physicality. It was a terrific run, for sure; and the best staying horse won, for sure; but performance analysis suggests a Gold Cup run would be suicide. He is probably near unbeatable under the conditions of a Ryanair Chase, however. 

The winner, Silviniaco Conti, confirmed the abundant promise of a Gold Cup performance curtailed by falling three from home. All being well, he will now get another chance to test himself against the reigning champion, who was just behind him when he departed that contest. 

Here, at Kempton, he was excellent. The mistake six out, where he briefly lost close touch with Cue Card, should just have reminded him enough of the sharp mentality he will need to display at Cheltenham but that apart he matched Cue Card's level of residual class and elite pace gallop, jumped with prowess and powered on to the finishing line in a way his main rival could not. Rounding the final bend his reins were given a shake, his neck a slap, asking him to begin to switch behind the bridle and when Joe Tizzard looked round anxiously as his horse emptied after two out, Noel Fehily knew he had won. He did not have time to think upon it because in an instant he swept aside his rival; the hard work had already been done. He had been looked after in the Betfair Chase, racing wide and without razor sharp fitness, but even so he showcased his top class elite characteristics in defeat.

"The concern for Sil Conti and probably the reason he was not taken to Kempton for the King George last season is the amount of energy he will be required to use to track the kind of pace that unfolds in a King George and how this impacts upon his ability to then stay on."

Last season this kind of Preview comment may have carried more weight, but in this contest the winner made it look errant and overly worrisome. In tracking an outstanding speed horse, he then had the iron will and energy distribution curve to maintain his effort to victory, confirming himself an outstanding staying chaser who, all things being equal, is capable of giving Bobs Worth a war. 

As it transpired, Al Ferof would have needed extraordinary levels of residual class to win this contest, making the award of slight win-preference to him over his stablemate a touch fanciful. Tracking a fiercely competitive elite gallop pace constructed by two hard-fit horses in peak physical condition was always going to be tricky given his own preparation, should that scenario emerge, and emerge it did. A more sedate or uneven gallop would have helped him. He went notably left at two or three fences, enough for this jockey to have to grab the reins and guide him back to where he wanted him but in general he went through the race as the third best horse, but adrift.

When the winner made a slight error six out he jumped well to close up the gap in third place. When the front two played their cards approaching the final bend the rest of the field was well beaten but Al Ferof's residual class kept him galloping and he stayed on resolutely to cross the line some 14L behind the impressive winner, a total of about four seconds. In terms of challenging for the win in this race, it can be said that Al Ferof failed his first 'acid test'. Yet this race will have broken him down physically in such a way as to instil strength into his frame. It was his second start following a year off the track and with more training and another race in his legs, it is entirely possible he can bridge some of that four second gap to his stablemate under the conditions of a Gold Cup. Should connections wish to wait, they can switch to the Ryanair Chase or skip the Festival altogether. A lot hinges on the specifics of his physicality following this contest and the extent to which he can be trained with the rigour required, but that it was a run full of promise is not in doubt. 

Mount Benbulben can be analysed in the context of other races. He ran well overall in fourth, 2L behind Al Ferof, and will have good claims in the Irish Hennessy.

Dynaste finished fifth but some 30L further back and was never in the race. He was reportedly sore following this race.

Long Run's glorious career at the top level is now over, he was a fantastic racehorse, winner of a Gold Cup and two King George VI Chases, chasing home the legendary Kauto Star in another. 

Riverside Theatre, Champion Court and Menorah were always likely to be outclassed in this contest.

Lexus Chase 2013

In contrast to the King George, the Lexus lacked any kind of elite pace gallop for most of the race resulting in all the runners running most of the race well within their comfort zones. There was rarely more than six lengths covering the field the whole way, and four from home four lengths covered first to last. 

That the highly exposed ex-French veteran Rubi Ball led the field for most of the way, and that he was accompanied by the elite-but-exposed First Lieutenant who challenged him for the lead going over the last fence, ultimately meant this was a race that the reigning Gold Cup holder, Bobs Worth, had to win. With the field extremely compact for most of the way, the runners had gradually starting rolling with more intensity from about five out so that after jumping two out they were all behind the bridle and racing proper. It was still a three mile contest, still soft ground, but if anything the nature of the race now asked who could race behind the bridle with the greatest power and class. What would otherwise have been a fairly normal race result was given its stamp by the performance of the winner, who would have won further the more distance was added after the line. Prominent throughout, rolling proper from two out, rounding the final bend Bobs Worth engaged the 'surge' mode behind the bridle that seemingly channels his energy to his legs and, as at Cheltenham in the Gold Cup, he powered to the front appearing to get stronger and more dynamic the closer the line came into view. It was a reminder once again of why he is so well suited to the peculiar configuration of Cheltenham but when fit and firing he should really be suited to almost any racecourse. 

One 'round-up' saw a markedly different race whereby "The Nicky Henderson horse quickened up after the last to wear down the game First Lieutenant". So at the same time Bobs Worth was accelerating rapidly (having raced behind the bridle for some time) yet in the next breath wearing down an opponent with stamina (having used up nearly all his energy by quickening/accelerating). None of this is accurate in any way. As alluded to elsewhere, the use of traditional racing language can often be hugely unsatisfactory. 

Bobs Worth, the winner of the Lexus, will clash once more with Silviniaco Conti, winner of the King George, as the winner of the Gold Cup tackles the horse what would have asked him the most questions from that Gold Cup. Elite racing often has a regularity, a structure, that in some cases is as discernible before the season starts as it is during the season itself. Both horses have to make the race, of course, and should one or both not do so the landscape would shift once again. 

Of the vanquished, First Lieutenant ran well once again in defeat, his twelfth in thirteen starts over the last two years. Sir Des Champs lacked any kind of tactical pace in fourth and the pair will likely clash with Mount Benbulben in the Irish Hennessy. Lyreen Legend ran well in fifth, and it is still surprising to see Unioniste campaigned in races beyond his capabilities at such a young age. 

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