The Sidebet:
This came to pass unexpectedly. I had done quite a bit of work analysing Boston Bob as he was a major contender for the RSA Chase from the start of the season. As a big race novice contender he captured the full spectrum of 'hype', performance and physical problematics. In the race itself he fell at the last when with every chance, then fell again when never threatening at Punchestown. In Twittersphere someone whose views I respect was extremely positive about his chances for next season in a big race of some kind. For my part, I doubted he would even run in England again in part due to physical problems associated with his two falls, given that he was also something of a late starter. Countering that was the view that the falls were incidental and that his form and class would see him win a top handicap or well-contested Graded race after a summer of further maturation. The bar was set at £100: Boston Bob to win any Premier Handicap or any Grade 1 or 2 race in the UK or Ireland in #NH14 (having to run in one once to validate the bet for the season). He says yes, I say no. Given the ever-present possibility of Boston contesting a fairly weak Graded race (particularly in Ireland) then it is possible the money is simply idling on the 'awaiting transfer' list. The money is spicy but not the interesting bit given the sporting nature of the bet which doesn't mean I want to give a lot of it away if I'm wrong, but the contrasting views are fascinating and mine is given below.
On Boston Bob:
A lot is made of 'following hype' in racing but it's rare that many people take the time to trace that hype to source or see fit to make it explicit and build it into any kind of meaningful analysis. Having been beaten at a short price at the 2012 Cheltenham Festival over hurdles (without looking overly classy) it was surprising to see the levels of expectation rise still further for his venture into staying novice chases. There was clearly a reason for this but the oft-cited one of 'built for chasing' and 'will come into his own when jumping a fence' did not explain why his level of residual class should rise appreciably for a change of obstacle. A simplistic Google search later and the reason for the expectation became immediately clear so it was therefore interesting and surprising in equal measure why more had not been made of the reason across various racing networks: the age-old gallop report is not exactly a newfangled information source. It is what it is. In the case of Boston Bob, it defined an abstraction. That abstraction was something totally unrelated to him as a racehorse: his price for winning at the Festival. As a racehorse his reputation was built on a gallop or two and this initially, rather than anything he had done on the track, was the reason for the expectation and 'hype': the horses he had galloped really well with were Hurricane Fly and Quevega, at the beginning of March, prior to his narrow defeat to Brindisi Breeze. Specifically, Mullins had said: "I am very happy with how they went. They all worked well and all they jumped very well, particularly Boston Bob, his jumping was immaculate, he just looks a real natural".
This regard from connections, allied eventually to winning the G1 Moriarty Chase, meant that Boston Bob could never be confidently ruled out of calculations when assessing the RSA Chase: in the end he was evaluated as a third place finisher http://thenhanalysisroom.blogspot.co.uk/2013/02/2013-rsa-chase-raceday-thoughts.html but in the end first, second or third were all possible outcomes. Actually for me first place was not possible for reasons underpinning this sidebet.
On Physicality:
Top class horses get beaten for two reasons: they are physically compromised in some way (illness, injury, soundness, poor preparation owing to those) or they meet a horse as good as them or better on the day. Sometimes both occur at the same time. Physicality can be difficult to assess owing to the lack of accessible information pertaining to a particular horse's condition, or put another way what a trainer has not said, or what s/he has said that hasn't been widely reported. What have been the weight fluctuations with the horse; did the horse eat up after its last run; has the training schedule been interrupted; if so why; how serious were those reasons; are any problems continuous and/or being continually 'managed'; and so on. A lot of this type of information has to be second guessed and analysed even when pointed to by a trainer, whose primary interest and responsibility is to their owners and/or themselves. Beginning his novice chase campaign, we can say with some confidence that Boston Bob is likely to have had ongoing physical issues that were being managed from some point subsequent to his last appearance at the Festival. What defines staying novice chasers is in large measure their robustness, their ability to handle a programme of races that ebbs and flows with intensity and pressure on their body. If a horse of this kind is not sighted until well into the season therefore, it is not ready to gain the physical conditioning it requires to develop into an RSA Chase winner. Boston Bob did not reappear until December 16, by which point the eventual winner (Lord Windermere) had run twice and was being prepared for a third start. He was well on his way to attaining the physical depth of preparation that would aid him in such an unforgiving championship event. Boston Bob's return was satisfactory but seemed to illuminate the training problems he had been experiencing, something confirmed in large part by his trainer who reported him to be sore following his debut. This immediately gives rise to the need to further monitor and manage an ongoing problem. Such ongoing issues are not uncommon in racehorses but the significance of a horse's physicality is greatly magnified in the context of an elite level contest where any weakness is exposed by other rivals. It is not enough to be 'classy', therefore.
Because of his problems, Boston Bob was given time to recover and targeted at the premier RSA Chase trial in Ireland, the Dr. P. J. Moriarty run on Febraury 9. This race would feature the eventual winner. Analytically regarding the RSA Chase, Boston Bob's victory was unsatisfactory. It would have been more comforting to be able to rule him out of contention had he been defeated or found to be lacking in positive staying chase attributes. As it was, he was able to recover from losing his place as the pace went critical to surge back at his rivals and nose ahead of them on the line. He had therefore won both his starts including a Grade One and premier trial race. All in all he clearly had a chance of some kind at the Festival but his physicality was still an issue. In fact, that problem of physicality would show the same tendency in the RSA itself, again losing his place before surging to the front, where he then fell.
The Falls:
The obvious horse to mention in this context is Quel Esprit (same trainer), who also fell twice in consecutive races as a novice in the Moriarty and the RSA (and was brought down at Punchestown). He had won comfortably on his chase debut in November looking set for a productive season (well regarded sort) but then did not reappear for three months until the Moriarty where he fell deep into the race. That three month gap suggested problems with his physicality (without searching for their exact nature retrospectively) and the fall highlighted the struggle to manage them. He fell again in the RSA when the pressure was likely beginning to hurt him three out. Boston Bob may prove to have more residual class than Quel Esprit who did eventually win an Irish Hennessy before fading from view. Like Boston Bob, Quel Esprit was shunned several times by Ruby Walsh who clearly knew of the physical problems the horse was having. The sidebet is not simply a comparative exercise however. It is a general test of discerning the importance of physicality and preparation in horses challenging for elite races. In any case there is another aspect to Boston Bob's physicality: he is already eight years of age. As such, in key contests in open company after the turn of the year he will be a nine year old. His profile begins to take on the look of a horse whose time never quite found him.
Horses recover from falls to win races; they can win races at any age; and they can win when not piloted by the stable's top jockey. Quel Esprit won a poor Irish Hennessy: Boston Bob will likely have to face the likes of First Lieutenant, Sir Des Champs and Mount Benbulben in Graded races. He is not in their class. What of that weak Grade 2 contest somewhere? That is fine. The contention is that Boston Bob was being put under a kind of physical pressure his body was not strong enough to handle (so really my contention is that physical problems will always get the better of him). This was shown by him losing his place at crucial tactical points deep into the race. As other horses were starting to switch behind the bridle and grind powerfully Boston Bob was unable to make the same transition easily due to the hold ups in his physical work and strengthening. In the Moriarty he was afforded the chance to win as other horses were themselves in preparation for the RSA or in the case of Texas Jack slightly lacking in residual class. The RSA was a different matter. With only two runs in his legs when contesting the RSA, going deep into that race would have been a highly strenuous experience. He again lost his place (conditioning) which then resulted in the need for a rather dramatic sweeping move around the field to surge into the lead (stressful) meaning he was likely to be tiring rapidly when he fell at the last fence. It was not an even, fluid movement through the race; it was staccato, rise and fall, surge and tire. Analytically that can also be deduced from his next start, where the effort of the RSA was revealed in full. In the RSA he was towards the back of a compact field of runners; at Punchestown he was out the back on the first circuit and detached at the back on the second. No doubt his class and heart - he appears to be a brave horse that tries hard - were behind his slight progress approaching three out but the simple effort to try and get closer whilst still last appeared to tire him and he fell quite heavily. Staying chasers often race prominently with power and rhythm that increases gradually and evenly with intensity: this has not been the stamp of Boston Bob's races owing to his physical problems. Those problems may be resolved over the summer but even if they are he will still be an inexperienced eight year old chaser stepping into a Graded division with a number of high class animals as potential opponents. Were he to contest a top handicap with a biggish weight his physical problems may well resurface.
If, instead, he rises like a Phoenix to win a key race the bet will be lost but the task of producing analysis has already been worth it.
On Boston Bob:
A lot is made of 'following hype' in racing but it's rare that many people take the time to trace that hype to source or see fit to make it explicit and build it into any kind of meaningful analysis. Having been beaten at a short price at the 2012 Cheltenham Festival over hurdles (without looking overly classy) it was surprising to see the levels of expectation rise still further for his venture into staying novice chases. There was clearly a reason for this but the oft-cited one of 'built for chasing' and 'will come into his own when jumping a fence' did not explain why his level of residual class should rise appreciably for a change of obstacle. A simplistic Google search later and the reason for the expectation became immediately clear so it was therefore interesting and surprising in equal measure why more had not been made of the reason across various racing networks: the age-old gallop report is not exactly a newfangled information source. It is what it is. In the case of Boston Bob, it defined an abstraction. That abstraction was something totally unrelated to him as a racehorse: his price for winning at the Festival. As a racehorse his reputation was built on a gallop or two and this initially, rather than anything he had done on the track, was the reason for the expectation and 'hype': the horses he had galloped really well with were Hurricane Fly and Quevega, at the beginning of March, prior to his narrow defeat to Brindisi Breeze. Specifically, Mullins had said: "I am very happy with how they went. They all worked well and all they jumped very well, particularly Boston Bob, his jumping was immaculate, he just looks a real natural".
This regard from connections, allied eventually to winning the G1 Moriarty Chase, meant that Boston Bob could never be confidently ruled out of calculations when assessing the RSA Chase: in the end he was evaluated as a third place finisher http://thenhanalysisroom.blogspot.co.uk/2013/02/2013-rsa-chase-raceday-thoughts.html but in the end first, second or third were all possible outcomes. Actually for me first place was not possible for reasons underpinning this sidebet.
On Physicality:
Top class horses get beaten for two reasons: they are physically compromised in some way (illness, injury, soundness, poor preparation owing to those) or they meet a horse as good as them or better on the day. Sometimes both occur at the same time. Physicality can be difficult to assess owing to the lack of accessible information pertaining to a particular horse's condition, or put another way what a trainer has not said, or what s/he has said that hasn't been widely reported. What have been the weight fluctuations with the horse; did the horse eat up after its last run; has the training schedule been interrupted; if so why; how serious were those reasons; are any problems continuous and/or being continually 'managed'; and so on. A lot of this type of information has to be second guessed and analysed even when pointed to by a trainer, whose primary interest and responsibility is to their owners and/or themselves. Beginning his novice chase campaign, we can say with some confidence that Boston Bob is likely to have had ongoing physical issues that were being managed from some point subsequent to his last appearance at the Festival. What defines staying novice chasers is in large measure their robustness, their ability to handle a programme of races that ebbs and flows with intensity and pressure on their body. If a horse of this kind is not sighted until well into the season therefore, it is not ready to gain the physical conditioning it requires to develop into an RSA Chase winner. Boston Bob did not reappear until December 16, by which point the eventual winner (Lord Windermere) had run twice and was being prepared for a third start. He was well on his way to attaining the physical depth of preparation that would aid him in such an unforgiving championship event. Boston Bob's return was satisfactory but seemed to illuminate the training problems he had been experiencing, something confirmed in large part by his trainer who reported him to be sore following his debut. This immediately gives rise to the need to further monitor and manage an ongoing problem. Such ongoing issues are not uncommon in racehorses but the significance of a horse's physicality is greatly magnified in the context of an elite level contest where any weakness is exposed by other rivals. It is not enough to be 'classy', therefore.
Because of his problems, Boston Bob was given time to recover and targeted at the premier RSA Chase trial in Ireland, the Dr. P. J. Moriarty run on Febraury 9. This race would feature the eventual winner. Analytically regarding the RSA Chase, Boston Bob's victory was unsatisfactory. It would have been more comforting to be able to rule him out of contention had he been defeated or found to be lacking in positive staying chase attributes. As it was, he was able to recover from losing his place as the pace went critical to surge back at his rivals and nose ahead of them on the line. He had therefore won both his starts including a Grade One and premier trial race. All in all he clearly had a chance of some kind at the Festival but his physicality was still an issue. In fact, that problem of physicality would show the same tendency in the RSA itself, again losing his place before surging to the front, where he then fell.
The Falls:
The obvious horse to mention in this context is Quel Esprit (same trainer), who also fell twice in consecutive races as a novice in the Moriarty and the RSA (and was brought down at Punchestown). He had won comfortably on his chase debut in November looking set for a productive season (well regarded sort) but then did not reappear for three months until the Moriarty where he fell deep into the race. That three month gap suggested problems with his physicality (without searching for their exact nature retrospectively) and the fall highlighted the struggle to manage them. He fell again in the RSA when the pressure was likely beginning to hurt him three out. Boston Bob may prove to have more residual class than Quel Esprit who did eventually win an Irish Hennessy before fading from view. Like Boston Bob, Quel Esprit was shunned several times by Ruby Walsh who clearly knew of the physical problems the horse was having. The sidebet is not simply a comparative exercise however. It is a general test of discerning the importance of physicality and preparation in horses challenging for elite races. In any case there is another aspect to Boston Bob's physicality: he is already eight years of age. As such, in key contests in open company after the turn of the year he will be a nine year old. His profile begins to take on the look of a horse whose time never quite found him.
Horses recover from falls to win races; they can win races at any age; and they can win when not piloted by the stable's top jockey. Quel Esprit won a poor Irish Hennessy: Boston Bob will likely have to face the likes of First Lieutenant, Sir Des Champs and Mount Benbulben in Graded races. He is not in their class. What of that weak Grade 2 contest somewhere? That is fine. The contention is that Boston Bob was being put under a kind of physical pressure his body was not strong enough to handle (so really my contention is that physical problems will always get the better of him). This was shown by him losing his place at crucial tactical points deep into the race. As other horses were starting to switch behind the bridle and grind powerfully Boston Bob was unable to make the same transition easily due to the hold ups in his physical work and strengthening. In the Moriarty he was afforded the chance to win as other horses were themselves in preparation for the RSA or in the case of Texas Jack slightly lacking in residual class. The RSA was a different matter. With only two runs in his legs when contesting the RSA, going deep into that race would have been a highly strenuous experience. He again lost his place (conditioning) which then resulted in the need for a rather dramatic sweeping move around the field to surge into the lead (stressful) meaning he was likely to be tiring rapidly when he fell at the last fence. It was not an even, fluid movement through the race; it was staccato, rise and fall, surge and tire. Analytically that can also be deduced from his next start, where the effort of the RSA was revealed in full. In the RSA he was towards the back of a compact field of runners; at Punchestown he was out the back on the first circuit and detached at the back on the second. No doubt his class and heart - he appears to be a brave horse that tries hard - were behind his slight progress approaching three out but the simple effort to try and get closer whilst still last appeared to tire him and he fell quite heavily. Staying chasers often race prominently with power and rhythm that increases gradually and evenly with intensity: this has not been the stamp of Boston Bob's races owing to his physical problems. Those problems may be resolved over the summer but even if they are he will still be an inexperienced eight year old chaser stepping into a Graded division with a number of high class animals as potential opponents. Were he to contest a top handicap with a biggish weight his physical problems may well resurface.
If, instead, he rises like a Phoenix to win a key race the bet will be lost but the task of producing analysis has already been worth it.
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