(3 weeks ago)
The move to front-running Long Run only emphasizes the general point,
although that can only be taken on trust once they line up.
It may help both horse and amateur jockey - the only thing to worry
about from the front is getting the fractions right with no
distractions. Most of his opposition are hardly going to be inclined to
want to force it, in the way Nacarat always wanted to, and Kauto was
out-the-ballpark good enough to.
Riverside is likely to sit second with his stamina now more in the confirmed box.
The reason i emphasize the 3m runs/form point is because at 2.5+ miles
those in behind the front 2 are really going to start hurting. Providing
there are no real thumping mistakes from Long Run that means they have
to go into overdrive to overtake him at the very point where they're
hurting the most because on paper they don't have the conditioning to
stay well enough.
It's hard to envisage Long Run folding easily from 1st place because he always runs a very similar level of race.
Smaller field races aren't going to be much of a guide if they're going
at LR's pace from the very start of the race - but that depends on SWC
asking for no let-up at all on his mount and for LR to get into the kind
of rhythm that saw him win it 2 years ago.
Lots of ifs, Kauto showed them how to do it last year though.
(19 days ago)
No change of gears definitely - he's one-paced absolutely no question.
Be very prominent/front-run - definitely, he finds it very hard to quicken at elite level pace.
Jockey - whatyagonnado aye
King George winner, Gold cup winner, dual Betfair Chase runner-up, Aon
winner, King George runner-up, Gold Cup 3rd - for a horse aged 7 (and
for any horse of any age) he has exceptionally strong form and sustained
G1 3m top class ability.
Because of the nature of his extraordinary winning season he has since
been assessed as if defeat is impossible: he must win every race to be a
superstar and an unbeatable champion but that's not the M.O of the
horse or necessarily the trainer: Long Run has been the victim of his
own success. It points again to the sheer futility of "prices" in that
because he's favourite he has to win and if he doesn't win he's not that
good. Big Buck's puts that 'pressure' into perspective.
Here Sizing Europe is a fine example. A stunning Arkle winner but he was
beaten all ends up in every single one of his starts after that until
returning for the QMCC. That's not really very good at all is it? Some
of them were by quite some way whereas LR very rarely gets beaten far
(because he's actually got a really rare ability to sustain elite level
3m pace).
So yes Long Run has lost some battles. Last year he lost the races you
highlight but what was going on? Was he ever really right. He got into
an almighty war with one of the best racehorses of all time and got his
ar$e handed to him fto as a result. Physically and mentally he was
probably shot by that and, to boot, he was more than likely still
progressing physically, or trying to. That's one hell of an ask and yet
he still only went down narrowly in a KG managing to lunge at Kauto one
last time too. It may have been his best effort to date all things
considered?
Favourite for the King George: does he not have to be? Irrelevance of
prices once more: were he 6 or 7/1+ everyone (nearly) would be saying
that is "value": a crazy price for a KG winner & KG runner-up
against a field with little 3m form. If anything one could say he
'should be' shorter but really it's all very pointless from an
assessment p.o.v...
... The reaction to the Betfair Chase highlights some of the above. How on
earth has he been beaten again, it's ridiculous, he's slow and not the
horse he was.
I thought he looked the best he's ever been. I'm no expert on that,
maybe he just had a shiny coat or something but he went through the race
comfortably. If he's one-paced how can he possibly win a G1 slowly-run,
stop-start affair against a horse who is in the form of his life, a
superb 3m chaser and not far off favourite for the Gold Cup afterwards?
Henderson had all but said they would tail him round without racing
because of his hard race against Kauto last year. He's not been beaten
far, what if Silvi wins the Gold Cup? How would the 2nd placing fto
going easy look then?
Variety of thought.
Is the KG weaker? It might be. Didn't Al Ferof win a handicap in which
only 6 finished? Should he be favourite? Should Cue Card be favourite,
the buzzy Arkle runner-up that's never been 3m?
Then the race itself: it's a war, I think? I can't think of many "speed"
horses winning a KG, Kicking King the last, but didn't he win a Gold
Cup anyway, as Long Run has? Hell for leather from the off it's a brutal
staying 3m like the World Hurdle where flashier, speedier, shorter-trip
types get hurt badly and fade badly, that's assuming they're G1 class
to start with.
Or is the race destined for the highest-rated chaser, the best 3m chaser
in the race, a previous winner and runner-up of the race, a horse that
can maintain 3m+ at one pace, elite pace?
##
That's obv the pro LR bit but it seems to make a whole world of sense.
Unless the horse is just "gone".
(17 days ago)
Whilst I like most agree it's not as if there needs to be a clock in his
head, Long Run has elite level pace and stamina it's more that SWC has
to do what Ruby did and not wait around if it's a bit of a dawdle. I'd
think it was a no-brainer but if he's not thinking and waits 3 fences
the race changes shape a bit..
Couldn't disagree more with HDB trying to push that SE is a 3m horse
with no worries. Small field Graded races in Ireland are often muddling
and he appeared not to stay in either attempt - ground can't be an
excuse because he won a Tingle on deep ground.
There's also an assumption, myself included, that SE would have won the
Champion Chase but for the final fence issue. Two things though: this
confirms SE as a 2miler through and through and anything but a 3m
stamina horse; and that level of form isn't necessarily red hot:
Finian's struggled a bit until that day and had lost his Arkle before
that.
(16 days ago)
Is Nicholas Mordino's conclusion an example of the confusion surrounding LR's abilities?
He says Silvi Conti's (sectional) times in the Betfair indicate him winning 4 out of 5 gold cups.
Yet being just 2.5L behind Long Run has gotten slower and less agile as a
result of sizeable physical growth over the last two seasons.
If Conti is that good - and I think he certainly is - how can LR
be so negatively evaluated when he's so close to him in a race that they
were taking a shade easy and which had no pace until Conti injected it
tactically (causing The Giant Bolster no end of problems as he points
out)?
Do hypotheticals help? Had Kauto been retired LR's form figures would have been 1113 last season.
Watched Riverside's Ascot win again and he didn't half move through it well.
(3 days ago)
Cue Card is a very good G1 horse and a fast one too. Part of what makes
him near top class, I think, is that he gives his all in his races.
Exuberance at the start (over fences he has more or less led from the
start in every race) and at the end: winning distances of 6L, 8L, 13L,
8L before fences and 3.5L, 4L (7L clear at the last) & 26L.
His jumping is adequate and not under scrutiny (needless) but he is far
from foot perfect and makes enough mistakes for a horse with elite level
pretensions.
Soft ground, it is reasonable to deduce, will have him in the red zone
at the second last, if not before. Given his exuberance/determination to
give everything, emptying the tank appears far more likely than running
to the line.
Good luck to all betting on the King George.
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